FEATURE
SOCIO-ECONOMIC RELEVANCE
OF POPULATION IN INDIA
Dr.K.Shanker Shetty
Human capital plays cardinal functional role in the socio-economic growth of a developing nation like India, is an understatement. Relevance and challenges of demographic factor always haunted India in recent decades incessantly. It can neither control the population under coercion like China did, nor allow the acceleration of the growth unabated. Though, India has recovered from the worst recession with marginal bruise there has been a shift of economic power from the west to the east and accordingly Asia and India are flourishing with huge flow of capital, manufacturing activities, software networks and enhanced standard of living. However, Asia in general and India in particular, inspite of huge population face the shortage of human capital, specially leaders in business. There is dearth of policy makers, leaders and industrial captains to lead the country into the new phase of greater power status.
In the meanwhile, in the Western World, during the next two decades people aged 65 and above will rise from 17% of the voting age population to 26% with enhanced demand for social-security remedies. U.S. census bureau recently has estimated that 194 of 227 countries witness population growth except in Germany and Japan. Though emerging economies of Asia have relative demographic advantage with younger working population at the high ratio, U.S. too has relatively younger population. Whereas, population in Germany and Japan may decline at 0.2% by 2015; China and India’s will rise by 0.4% and 1.2% respectively. However, it will be the increasing population mix that will determine the growth pattern of emerging markets and relatively reduce in advanced countries where it is declining. In fact, there will be difficult adjustment period ahead, as advanced economies have to cede their dominant positions on global economic stage.
CHINA & INDIA
The population in China, which has the 2nd largest economy, will grow faster than that of U.S. by 2025 says an U.N. estimate. China’s median age is likely to rise from 34.2 now to 38.9 in 2025 as against 32.6 of India. In the decades to come, India and China will be the centre of global trade; and unless there is a big U-turn in the outsourcing policies of the developed countries, the world economy will be concentrated in these two countries. At the same time, thanks to its demographic dividend factor, even at the cost of brain drain, 2% of India’s 1.3 trillion GDP is received by India through remittances from working population abroad. Some demographers even aver that China and India are decades away from becoming advanced nations, because their populations are very poor. Though China has grown by leaps and bounds recently majority of Chinese still live under abject poverty. So is the case with India that inspite of its average growth at 8.5% the population growth has nullified the relative advantages in terms of per capital income.
Demographic Trends as per 2011 Census
As per the census 2010-11, India’s population has been 1.21 billion which is equal to the combined population of U.S., Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Japan. In reality India added another Brazil in terms of total population between 2001-11, despite of a declining incremental growth rate in India. However, in India, girls ratio has declined to 914 from 926 levels for every 1000 boys during the same period though literacy ratio has gone up to 74% from 64.8% a decade ago. Yet, there has been an improvement in the quality of life.
Treat Population as a National Asset
For a dispassionate observer on the population trends in India, it transmits a clear message that India must turn over its 1.2 billion population into a national asset, reaping abundant quantity of visible and non-visible “demographic dividend”. Census reconfirms our status as the second most populated nation though the gap between China and India is reducing. Yet, India is far behind China in terms of income and development indices which can be minimized only through innovative policies and implementation of strategies so as to transform its huge demographic structure into an impressive, productive and effective human resource. This must encourage India to evolve and devise policies on food, shelter, education, health, HRD and training of at least 40% of the populace in an environment in which economic infrastructure can be a positive factor. India like China must ensure to treat its large population as a national asset and not a liability. However, this is possible only if the principle of ‘inclusive’ growth becomes an effective instrument of nation’s socio-economic policies without rhetorical lip services.
India must also realize that if it fails to realize, recognize and harness the abundant energy of its human resources, our dream of becoming a ‘global power’ will remain a mere notion. This is despite the fact that the incremental burden in quantitative terms of population has shown reduction between 1991-01 and 2001-11, of 186 m i.e. 17.6% increase. Yet, there is ample scope to improve the quality of human power. It will be in tune with the improving pace of economic growth. It was ‘Art Hoppe’ who said that “We all worry about population explosion, but we don’t worry about it at the right time” (Ref: Editiorial; “Positive Curve” Times of India, April 12, 2011). However, a moderate population trend is key to riding demographic transition.
The census 2011 also reveals that the country’s birth rate, death rate and natural population growth rate are on the decline. The survey also indicated that overall birth rate dipped by 14% between 1998-2008, which is a positive trend. However, this was not achieved through coercive method is noteworthy. Probably, the declining but positive trend might have been triggered due to the improved educational method and literacy of female segments and also improved income level among specific segment of population. Reduced death rate and infant mortality rate reduction, is due to better healthcare system. At present about 50% of population comprise of below 25 years of age, indicative of a “demographic dividend” eventuality of an “Youth” brigade useful for future growth process. At the same time, political leadership must ensure that India feeds its millions and the economy generate enough jobs. In this direction, government would do well to encourage investment in and expansion of the labour intensive manufacturing sector, both in rural and urban areas, to soak up the large number of unemployed. Population policy of the government must undergo changes in such a way that even while the number of younger – working age population increases, overall growth of population must be kept balanced with the available national resources to employ and feed the incremental numbers. China has succeeded in this regard. Its incremental population has gradually reduced, as a result of which the gap between the total population between China and India has reduced though China has three times the land to that of India. Further, as a result of controlled population growth, China’s per capita income has risen to three times to that of India. Therefore, India must adopt a balanced approach in formulating its population policy so as to have short term dividends without affecting the long term advantages accrued on account of a larger number of younger working population i.e. demographic dividend.
Regressive & Untenable Policy
At the same time, 79 years after the last caste based census in India once again some political parties desired a similar dividing policy of our population and a census of caste based census was again enumerated in 2011. In this regard, it is worth recalling that sensing the danger of further fragmenting the unity of India Sardar Patel had put an end to caste based census in India, which was in fact a rallying point for the British to divide and rule India, since 1931 census. However, by reversing the trend, the caste based census was again undertaken in 1911 due to vote bank politics is reprehensible. In fact, 2001 census enumerated 18,740 categories of SC/ST in India; there were 1963 castes in the central lists of OBCs which included 4000 sub castes and each state with separate list of OBCs; there were 4830 gotras among Jat community alone! With such a scenario of caste/sub caste system can India ever achieve unity among its 1.21 billion population? In reality it is a blight on our modernity and caste hierarchy makes the socio-economic imperatives purely on the basis of birth which is untenable.
Building Human Capital in India
It is the truism that unless India adopts a balanced population policy, the country may face irreversible imbalance in providing adequate employment opportunities, food supply, housing, education and healthcare facilities and other welfare related infrastructural avenues to them. It shall prove to be disastrous for the nation which aspires to be a super power of the future. Further, as the economic centre is shifting towards developing economics like India and China with increasing level of confidence and overflowing investment, there is a need to have a strong human capital to harness the process. There is also an imperative need for a sustainable economic policy, attracting enhanced investment and support the same with enhanced energies and aspirations of Indian people. Obviously, to become a great power, other things remaining the same, India needs to grow at a constant GDP growth rate of 10% for at least a decade, warranting simultaneously up gradation of existing capabilities of our working force and also improve their productivity, efficiency and employability through adequate education and training in technical and non-technical spheres. M/s.Mckinsey have estimated in 2010 that by 2020 India will need to upgrade and reskill about 500 million of its people from the present level of just 50 million.
Moreover, only 2% of the existing manpower has the requisite training to sharpen their skills. “Boston Consulting Group” on the other hand in its report opined that out of the 89 million workers who may join the labour force between 2009-13 nearly 47 million are school drop outs. It is worth stating that though India’s population is four times that of U.S., India has less number of technicians and engineers of which only 25% of employable in global markets.
Fortunately, India has a strong degree of demographic dividend to be accrued by way of large young army of population. Yet, it is of no use unless it is properly educated and trained to face the new global socio-economic realities. Therefore, says, Harish Manvani, “an equally important aspect of building human capital is creating the capital for innovation, which can be done when we embed ‘creativity’ into the DNA of our education system and reward innovation. This will build the much needed intellectual capital which is key to sustaining long term icon progress” (Building Human Capital – The Economic Times, July 28, 2010).
India must reap Demographic Dividend
Often, Indians feel that their country is faced with the curse of ‘excess population’ without thinking that such exigency has remedy by transforming the danger into an opportunity. Though it is a young nation, the promise of the demographic dividend is multiplying in India unlike in Europe, Japan and even marginally in China. There are 45 million Indians between the age of 13 and 35, 333 million literate young Indians and 62% of the literate youth live in villages, 35% of literate youth are interested in science and technology and 34% in environmental pollution and 40% of the literate youth are OBCs, 27% are general caste, 23% are SCs and 10% are STs. What is significant is that literate youth normally prefer to move from rural to urban areas. In fact 82% of the literate youth in villages being below matriculates and only 6% are graduates who prefer to move out. However, growth in the number of literate youth is rapid in urban India at 3.15% p.a. than 2.1% in rural centres. At the same time, it is to be noted that “A Demographic dividend may become a liability unless the growth is made inclusive”. (“Nivedita Mukherjee” India, “rearing to go”, “India today”, October 4, 2010, P-37”) otherwise, country may face a socio-economic problem of the worst kind. Further though India has 18% of the world’s student population being the largest in the world, the government policies and directives so far failed to articulate them towards inclusive development spheres which is imperative. While India has a chance to house the most vibrant workforce, 25 years from now, a failure in skill development-mission due to lack of proper education can upset our apple cart. Industry is afraid that if they put in their resources in training a particular group of workers, they run the risk of them getting poached. This is the zero sum game mentally which benefits none. But things are changing now. Moreover the demographic dividend can work in India’s favour only if the labour is skilled and employable, otherwise it may turn out to be a dangerous cocktail and hence vocational education is a key factor in employability. With the demographic dividend on hand, if more Indians are provided education plus to enrich the skills and readily employable, it will help create savings, investment and GDP growth. If government fails to improve the skills through adequate education, demographic asset may convert itself as a net liability affecting the future of India.
The Asian tigers including China grew because they succeeded to use this demographic dividend to their advantage, by heavily investing in education, quality training resulting in improved efficiency and productivity in workplaces. It is estimated that 12.8 million Indian youth will enter the employment market every year. But has Indian government ever bothered to improve and enhance the quality of “Talent energy” in India? However, “the key to obtaining demographic dividend is not just the level of skills in the working force, but the availability of jobs. No point having more skilled people if they can not find jobs; the essence of inclusive growth is job creation and the pattern of enterprises that will create employment. (“Pallavi Singh”, “Talent Energy”, “The Economic Times” December 12, 2010). Yet, due to prevalent system of education, skill distribution in India is not properly or evenly distributed. The National skill development corporation set up a public pvt. partnership to improve skill development. In Indian context what corporate sector need is “skilled workforce” which in turn, it depends upon the quality of education and skill development programmes and hence there is an imperative necessity for the corporate sector that India produces a “talent pool” through proper education system. In fact manpower crunch in India has often hit many institutional functions and also affected badly flagship schemes of the government including Sarva Shikshan Abhiyan with an investment of Rs.54,371 crores; NRHM with the budget of Rs.51417 crores, ICDs with the spending of Rs.27,384 crores and abort all MGNREGs with an expenditures of Rs.1,21,861 crores. They suffered because of absence of adequate number of trained personnel with the basic educational background, apart from lack of good governance.
Population V/s Food Problem
The world population is expected to cross 9 billion in 2050 from 7 billion and India’s to 1.7 billion from 1.2 billion in 2011. The question, therefore, arises is whether the world is ready with adequate food for the gigantic size of its habitats. At the beginning of 2011 food industry around the globe is in a crisis because economic recession prices have peaked even when millions of people languish in poverty and hunger leading to food riots, land grabbing, export bans, etc.
In India government ought to be mainly concerned with feeding its growing population because high volatile prices have made the life of below poverty line people miserable. Tragedy in India is that large quantity of food is wasted in and near the farms; rats, mice and locusts eat the crops in the fields and then huge quantity is allowed to rot for want of storage facilities even while millions go hungry to bed every night. Indian population suffered even at the time of freedom and hence they still remain non-independent of hunger even while they call India shining but India is actually starving. Irony is that more number of people go hungry in India than in Pakistan. There are many remedies to meet the challenges of hunger of India’s population. Innovation in agriculture, a sustainable food security to the poor and above all revival of green revolution are some of them. There must have improved production and supply management to provide food to every member of society; subsidy is not the “be all and end all” remedy to feed the poor population in the country, but the political will to provide adequate food to the hungry population is the basic need.
Population Surge V/s Unemployment Scourge
“Unemployment” problem is a curse on a socially structured nation like India which aspires to climb the ladder upwards towards a great power plateau, because it pulls down the ascendancy through the socio-economic deficiency strings affecting the nation’s forward march. Whether, it was in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria or Yemen, it is the unemployed youth who are in the front line of ‘jasmine revolution’. We find them in the form of separatists, terrorists, Marxists or Naxalites in different parts of India because unemployment thrives out of excess population within the nation. There is impatient among the unemployed and chronic unemployment is like a ‘ticking bomb’ as explained by Chris Grayling, the British Employment Minister.
India with the demand for talent for outweighing supply, the struggle to recruit new people takes a narrow path even while increase in population walks through highways. Rural sector in particular is plagued by both direct and disguised unemployment and in cities companies find it difficult to procure employable youth for the right job.
In India not only 38% live under poverty but crores are unemployed or under employed. Further, there is brain drain of skilled and highly talented with 11.4m immigrants going abroad even when 5.4m immigrants coming to India. Most of the immigrant workers from India are from IT, plumbers, masons, carpenters, electricians, doctors, engineers, etc. On the other hand, India’s employment market is severally affected by the reservation mania perpetuated by the vote bank political dispensations. It is a shortsighted and opportunistic policy which has created more problems than solving. This policy negates that principle that all people do not have equal talents but all should have an equal opportunity to develop such talents to get employed.
In Nutshell
In nutshell, it must be stated that population is the most important factor in the growth, peace, progress and prosperity of our nation. The issue must be dealt with through a deliberately woven policy which must ensure to drive away the negative aspects but enlist positive imperatives for the good of the nation. Reaping the ‘demographic dividend’ must be the ultimate objective of our national population policy in this direction.
Author is an economist and a former General Manager of Vijaya Bank
A Tribute To Apple Founder
& To Global Change Makers !
Rakesh Manchanda
We humans tend to be selfish. While working on computers for decades, I never took the time to learn more about Steve Jobs and his inspiring life, even though I used his innovative devices that made my life easy and communicate with many. Let me share with you a slice of his life that I learned after his sad demise. According to Jay Elloit, a former APPLE executive, Steve Jobs encouraged productivity and was never driven by `stock price`. He was not driven by money. He simply loved to create things, be it in his garage or at his corporate headquarters in Cupertino. Stay hungry ! Stay foolish ! was his famous teachings to young minds. Today, many cities across America can relate to India`s Anna brand demonstrations against unfair protection to Wall Street and Black Money. At the same time, we see people with flowers and candles paying their tribute to Steve Jobs. One such placard on television reads : Break the Wall and Let the Street stand alone. Jaya Kamlani, who is an activist friend, a Steve Jobs supporter and a compulsive writer from America fears,” We shall soon see in America what we saw recently in Egypt, if they don’t create jobs in America fast enough.” Death today is helpless and is unable to overshadow Steve Jobs’ life. As he put it: “Death is life’s change agent.” Years ago, distressed at the 30-second startup time for the early Mac, he asked the systems programmer: “Even if it took you three days to make it a single second faster, it would be worth it.” Result ? a full three seconds were skimmed off. Steve knew that due to cancer, death was lurking around the bend. He used this fear as a time management tool and stole oxygen from hidden challenges. During his days of struggle in his professional life, he would stand in front of the mirror and rehearse his speech to become a better communicator. One of his famous quotes he used to rehearse was: “If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do?” If the answer was a simple “NO” for several days in a row, then he believed it called for a change in his life. Let us examine how Steve Jobs steered his life. He transformed the technology, communications and the music industry. He introduced the first personal computer: the Macintosh. He also inaugurated the `post-PC` world. Forced by the executive board to leave Apple, he returned in 1997 to save the drifting company. However, in that decade out, his company created the “OS” operating system, while he went on to create the animation company Pixar and launched the NEXT Computer, a company that did not take off. It was Apple that blocked the music industry’s free-fall with the introduction of its iTunes software and an innovative distribution system.Though digital music players and smart phones were familiar things, the iPod and iPhone as media puts were rich and novel creations. Going toe-to-toe in competition with Amazon’s “Kindle” tablet for downloading books, Apple lured its customers and shareholders to its sleek and user-friendly iPad. From the mouse and the graphical user interface, to the essential touch screens and applications, it seems unthinkable that one human being could have played such a decisive role, working with different product teams from the design phase to the product rollout plan. In many ways, his personality seeped into his products, and his work philosophy was shaped by Thomas Edison and Karl Marx. He understood and promoted work as a religion, carefully calibrating mileage per second. Why is the world so touched by Steve Jobs’ death? It is not just love for Apple’s innovations, but rather Steve’s modest life story, his leadership skills, and work ethics. Although Apple has an impressive Public Relations team, people knew how to reach him: “sjobs@apple.com”. Flooded with complaints and suggestions, at times he asked his staff to leave him alone to respond to the sea of emails. In his career, he tried again, failed again, failed better, and succeeded spectacularly, except for cancer, which corrupted his body in an irreversible mode. He had lived life to his fullest, through thick and thin, sometimes selling empty coke bottles at 5 cents apiece in his youth. Steve Jobs was ahead of his time. Like Madonna, he constantly reinvented himself.
The teacher who inspired me most.
Prof. B. M. Hegde,
hegdebm@gmail.com
I had many teachers at every stage of my school life that inspired me to forge ahead with confidence. Among them I would like to pay a special tribute, for the purpose of this article, to Dr. Walter Somerville, the chief of cardiology at the Middlesex and Harefield Hospitals in London and, the then editor of the British Heart Journal (now called Heart), who had the maximum influence on my career in general and my research interests in cardiology and my writings in particular. He was my mentor and a great motivator in addition to being the best clinician. He is my role model in life too. In his death a few years ago I had the same feeling of loss that I had felt when my parents died.
An Irishman by birth, Walter had his early education in Dublin and moved to London for further training as he felt medicine in Dublin is very much controlled by religion then. Originally he wanted to be a journalist but fate took him to the medical school instead although he was a journalist for three decades as the editor of the prestigious British Heart Journal with great distinction. His early training did help him a lot. He trained to be a cardiologist training with Paul Wood at the Hammersmith Hospital and was in fact assisted Paul Wood in the first historic cardiac catheterization done in the UK in 1939 He was a close confident and colleague of the two founder fathers of British cardiology, Paul Wood and Evan Bedford. When Paul Wood had a heart attack in 1962, he wanted Walter to treat him. He eventually succeeded Evan Bedford to be the chief at the Middlesex Hospital and Paul Wood at the Harefield regional cardiology centre. He had a long stint of cardiology training in Paris which at that time was the Mecca of cardiology. Walter edited the original British cardiology textbook by Paul Wood after the latter died with the help of other students and colleagues of Late Paul Wood. Walter had the unique distinction of serving as the President of British Cardiac Society for five terms!
He married his own student, a dynamic paediatric cardiologist, Jane Somerville, who is one of the leading authorities in her field even to this day. She goes round the world teaching and lecturing. She was a consultant at the National Heart Hospital in London where she had created the first Grown up Children’s Cardiac Unit. Between the husband and the wife they had some of the best research papers in cardiology. Jane bore him four children all of whom are doing very well in life. Having been a consultant to the air force, Walter contributed a lot to the British forces for which he was honoured by the Queen as a Commandant of the British Empire. Walter was in the British air force during the second World War and was closely involved with invasion of Japan where he was badly burnt. He narrowly missed becoming a fighter pilot. He was so handsome and had such fine English accent that MGM studios wanted to take him as an actor but Walter denied the offer.
My life changed a lot after I came in contact with Walter. When I was his senior registrar at the Middlesex Hospital, he used to take me to his editorial office during free time and taught me the house keeping details of journalism and research. I worked with him on a couple of research projects. He got me a place to work under Nobel laureate Bernard Lown at the Harvard Medical School which gave me an insight into some of the great minds in cardiology at that time like Lewis Dexter, Sonnenblick and Eugene Braunwald, to mention a few.
His universal compassion as a great doctor, his love for humanity, his keen sense of observation, his critical view of medical research, his incisive intellect and above all his indomitable courage gave me excellent examples to live and work. One incidence is worth mentioning here. He was eighty two and working full time. He was on his way home at 7 pm in the dark on a cold wintry night, walking the distance between the hospital and his home for his daily exercise. He was waylaid by two black youth mugging him to rob him of his belongings. They left him bleeding unconscious on the pavement in the Regent’s Park in the heart of London. Later he was picked up and in the hospital a large blood clot was removed from his brain. That left him blind in one eye with a future threat to the other eye as well. A year later he became totally blind. That did not deter Walter from working full time using talking books and journals and writing extensively with the help of his secretary. He could not, however, see patients after that. He lived another decade that way full of life. I had to spend time with him each time I went to London where I found him his usual self. He knew his way round his large pent house. He could even fill his wine glass without spilling. Never once did I hear him complain!
The last time I saw him he was showing signs of imminent death. I had discussed with Jane about my observations and she did agree. He died in peace a few days later. I wrote an obituary in the British Medical Journal about this great man, my mentor and an example of a man who was an ideal teacher, a thinker, honest researcher, a good husband, a doting father, a great clinician and, above all, a motivator par excellence to hundreds of his trainees. A line about his universal compassion is not out of place here. I was there with him again as Commonwealth Fellow in cardiology when my mother came down with cancer. Being the only child and my father having died earlier, I had the responsibility to be by her side at the crucial time. My term was getting over in a couple of months.
When I met him to ask for advice I could see his eyes filling with tears! Without a word he asked his secretary to get him Sir John McMichael on the phone. Sir John was another great cardiologist at the Hammersmith Hospital, who was at that time the head of the Commonwealth Commission. He told Sir John that I must be relieved immediately with all my expenses paid by the commission to get back to be with my mother. He also told Sir John that I must be given a second term after my mother gets well if I wished to. I did get back and was a rare case where one got the Fellowship twice.
I had noticed similar empathy shown to patients in distress many times in the wards. He had a great respect for me as a cardiologist. He used to think that I was a good teacher. When he retired in 1982 from the Middlesex Hospital the NHS was going to abolish his post for want of funds. He saw that I was appointed a visiting professor of cardiology in his place for a month every year as long as I wanted, with a hon. consultant status at the Middlesex. His other colleague, another of my great teachers, Late Richard Emanuel, was also very helpful in recommending my name for the post. If I am not mistaken it was the first such appointment there. Richard was another of my role models. Richard’s wife Lavinia treats me as their own son.
In conclusion, here was a great man that inspired generations of his students to be good doctors, a breed that is threatening to be extinct in this era of corporate medicine where money rules the roost with compassion and patient care being relegated to the background. Modern medicine which had been hijacked by technology today has become a bane to society according to the recent audits in fourteen industrialized countries. At this crucial time we need more teachers like Walter to change the sad state of affairs to stop the sad demise of clinical medicine. May his tribe increase!
OF POPULATION IN INDIA
Dr.K.Shanker Shetty
Human capital plays cardinal functional role in the socio-economic growth of a developing nation like India, is an understatement. Relevance and challenges of demographic factor always haunted India in recent decades incessantly. It can neither control the population under coercion like China did, nor allow the acceleration of the growth unabated. Though, India has recovered from the worst recession with marginal bruise there has been a shift of economic power from the west to the east and accordingly Asia and India are flourishing with huge flow of capital, manufacturing activities, software networks and enhanced standard of living. However, Asia in general and India in particular, inspite of huge population face the shortage of human capital, specially leaders in business. There is dearth of policy makers, leaders and industrial captains to lead the country into the new phase of greater power status.
In the meanwhile, in the Western World, during the next two decades people aged 65 and above will rise from 17% of the voting age population to 26% with enhanced demand for social-security remedies. U.S. census bureau recently has estimated that 194 of 227 countries witness population growth except in Germany and Japan. Though emerging economies of Asia have relative demographic advantage with younger working population at the high ratio, U.S. too has relatively younger population. Whereas, population in Germany and Japan may decline at 0.2% by 2015; China and India’s will rise by 0.4% and 1.2% respectively. However, it will be the increasing population mix that will determine the growth pattern of emerging markets and relatively reduce in advanced countries where it is declining. In fact, there will be difficult adjustment period ahead, as advanced economies have to cede their dominant positions on global economic stage.
CHINA & INDIA
The population in China, which has the 2nd largest economy, will grow faster than that of U.S. by 2025 says an U.N. estimate. China’s median age is likely to rise from 34.2 now to 38.9 in 2025 as against 32.6 of India. In the decades to come, India and China will be the centre of global trade; and unless there is a big U-turn in the outsourcing policies of the developed countries, the world economy will be concentrated in these two countries. At the same time, thanks to its demographic dividend factor, even at the cost of brain drain, 2% of India’s 1.3 trillion GDP is received by India through remittances from working population abroad. Some demographers even aver that China and India are decades away from becoming advanced nations, because their populations are very poor. Though China has grown by leaps and bounds recently majority of Chinese still live under abject poverty. So is the case with India that inspite of its average growth at 8.5% the population growth has nullified the relative advantages in terms of per capital income.
Demographic Trends as per 2011 Census
As per the census 2010-11, India’s population has been 1.21 billion which is equal to the combined population of U.S., Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Japan. In reality India added another Brazil in terms of total population between 2001-11, despite of a declining incremental growth rate in India. However, in India, girls ratio has declined to 914 from 926 levels for every 1000 boys during the same period though literacy ratio has gone up to 74% from 64.8% a decade ago. Yet, there has been an improvement in the quality of life.
Treat Population as a National Asset
For a dispassionate observer on the population trends in India, it transmits a clear message that India must turn over its 1.2 billion population into a national asset, reaping abundant quantity of visible and non-visible “demographic dividend”. Census reconfirms our status as the second most populated nation though the gap between China and India is reducing. Yet, India is far behind China in terms of income and development indices which can be minimized only through innovative policies and implementation of strategies so as to transform its huge demographic structure into an impressive, productive and effective human resource. This must encourage India to evolve and devise policies on food, shelter, education, health, HRD and training of at least 40% of the populace in an environment in which economic infrastructure can be a positive factor. India like China must ensure to treat its large population as a national asset and not a liability. However, this is possible only if the principle of ‘inclusive’ growth becomes an effective instrument of nation’s socio-economic policies without rhetorical lip services.
India must also realize that if it fails to realize, recognize and harness the abundant energy of its human resources, our dream of becoming a ‘global power’ will remain a mere notion. This is despite the fact that the incremental burden in quantitative terms of population has shown reduction between 1991-01 and 2001-11, of 186 m i.e. 17.6% increase. Yet, there is ample scope to improve the quality of human power. It will be in tune with the improving pace of economic growth. It was ‘Art Hoppe’ who said that “We all worry about population explosion, but we don’t worry about it at the right time” (Ref: Editiorial; “Positive Curve” Times of India, April 12, 2011). However, a moderate population trend is key to riding demographic transition.
The census 2011 also reveals that the country’s birth rate, death rate and natural population growth rate are on the decline. The survey also indicated that overall birth rate dipped by 14% between 1998-2008, which is a positive trend. However, this was not achieved through coercive method is noteworthy. Probably, the declining but positive trend might have been triggered due to the improved educational method and literacy of female segments and also improved income level among specific segment of population. Reduced death rate and infant mortality rate reduction, is due to better healthcare system. At present about 50% of population comprise of below 25 years of age, indicative of a “demographic dividend” eventuality of an “Youth” brigade useful for future growth process. At the same time, political leadership must ensure that India feeds its millions and the economy generate enough jobs. In this direction, government would do well to encourage investment in and expansion of the labour intensive manufacturing sector, both in rural and urban areas, to soak up the large number of unemployed. Population policy of the government must undergo changes in such a way that even while the number of younger – working age population increases, overall growth of population must be kept balanced with the available national resources to employ and feed the incremental numbers. China has succeeded in this regard. Its incremental population has gradually reduced, as a result of which the gap between the total population between China and India has reduced though China has three times the land to that of India. Further, as a result of controlled population growth, China’s per capita income has risen to three times to that of India. Therefore, India must adopt a balanced approach in formulating its population policy so as to have short term dividends without affecting the long term advantages accrued on account of a larger number of younger working population i.e. demographic dividend.
Regressive & Untenable Policy
At the same time, 79 years after the last caste based census in India once again some political parties desired a similar dividing policy of our population and a census of caste based census was again enumerated in 2011. In this regard, it is worth recalling that sensing the danger of further fragmenting the unity of India Sardar Patel had put an end to caste based census in India, which was in fact a rallying point for the British to divide and rule India, since 1931 census. However, by reversing the trend, the caste based census was again undertaken in 1911 due to vote bank politics is reprehensible. In fact, 2001 census enumerated 18,740 categories of SC/ST in India; there were 1963 castes in the central lists of OBCs which included 4000 sub castes and each state with separate list of OBCs; there were 4830 gotras among Jat community alone! With such a scenario of caste/sub caste system can India ever achieve unity among its 1.21 billion population? In reality it is a blight on our modernity and caste hierarchy makes the socio-economic imperatives purely on the basis of birth which is untenable.
Building Human Capital in India
It is the truism that unless India adopts a balanced population policy, the country may face irreversible imbalance in providing adequate employment opportunities, food supply, housing, education and healthcare facilities and other welfare related infrastructural avenues to them. It shall prove to be disastrous for the nation which aspires to be a super power of the future. Further, as the economic centre is shifting towards developing economics like India and China with increasing level of confidence and overflowing investment, there is a need to have a strong human capital to harness the process. There is also an imperative need for a sustainable economic policy, attracting enhanced investment and support the same with enhanced energies and aspirations of Indian people. Obviously, to become a great power, other things remaining the same, India needs to grow at a constant GDP growth rate of 10% for at least a decade, warranting simultaneously up gradation of existing capabilities of our working force and also improve their productivity, efficiency and employability through adequate education and training in technical and non-technical spheres. M/s.Mckinsey have estimated in 2010 that by 2020 India will need to upgrade and reskill about 500 million of its people from the present level of just 50 million.
Moreover, only 2% of the existing manpower has the requisite training to sharpen their skills. “Boston Consulting Group” on the other hand in its report opined that out of the 89 million workers who may join the labour force between 2009-13 nearly 47 million are school drop outs. It is worth stating that though India’s population is four times that of U.S., India has less number of technicians and engineers of which only 25% of employable in global markets.
Fortunately, India has a strong degree of demographic dividend to be accrued by way of large young army of population. Yet, it is of no use unless it is properly educated and trained to face the new global socio-economic realities. Therefore, says, Harish Manvani, “an equally important aspect of building human capital is creating the capital for innovation, which can be done when we embed ‘creativity’ into the DNA of our education system and reward innovation. This will build the much needed intellectual capital which is key to sustaining long term icon progress” (Building Human Capital – The Economic Times, July 28, 2010).
India must reap Demographic Dividend
Often, Indians feel that their country is faced with the curse of ‘excess population’ without thinking that such exigency has remedy by transforming the danger into an opportunity. Though it is a young nation, the promise of the demographic dividend is multiplying in India unlike in Europe, Japan and even marginally in China. There are 45 million Indians between the age of 13 and 35, 333 million literate young Indians and 62% of the literate youth live in villages, 35% of literate youth are interested in science and technology and 34% in environmental pollution and 40% of the literate youth are OBCs, 27% are general caste, 23% are SCs and 10% are STs. What is significant is that literate youth normally prefer to move from rural to urban areas. In fact 82% of the literate youth in villages being below matriculates and only 6% are graduates who prefer to move out. However, growth in the number of literate youth is rapid in urban India at 3.15% p.a. than 2.1% in rural centres. At the same time, it is to be noted that “A Demographic dividend may become a liability unless the growth is made inclusive”. (“Nivedita Mukherjee” India, “rearing to go”, “India today”, October 4, 2010, P-37”) otherwise, country may face a socio-economic problem of the worst kind. Further though India has 18% of the world’s student population being the largest in the world, the government policies and directives so far failed to articulate them towards inclusive development spheres which is imperative. While India has a chance to house the most vibrant workforce, 25 years from now, a failure in skill development-mission due to lack of proper education can upset our apple cart. Industry is afraid that if they put in their resources in training a particular group of workers, they run the risk of them getting poached. This is the zero sum game mentally which benefits none. But things are changing now. Moreover the demographic dividend can work in India’s favour only if the labour is skilled and employable, otherwise it may turn out to be a dangerous cocktail and hence vocational education is a key factor in employability. With the demographic dividend on hand, if more Indians are provided education plus to enrich the skills and readily employable, it will help create savings, investment and GDP growth. If government fails to improve the skills through adequate education, demographic asset may convert itself as a net liability affecting the future of India.
The Asian tigers including China grew because they succeeded to use this demographic dividend to their advantage, by heavily investing in education, quality training resulting in improved efficiency and productivity in workplaces. It is estimated that 12.8 million Indian youth will enter the employment market every year. But has Indian government ever bothered to improve and enhance the quality of “Talent energy” in India? However, “the key to obtaining demographic dividend is not just the level of skills in the working force, but the availability of jobs. No point having more skilled people if they can not find jobs; the essence of inclusive growth is job creation and the pattern of enterprises that will create employment. (“Pallavi Singh”, “Talent Energy”, “The Economic Times” December 12, 2010). Yet, due to prevalent system of education, skill distribution in India is not properly or evenly distributed. The National skill development corporation set up a public pvt. partnership to improve skill development. In Indian context what corporate sector need is “skilled workforce” which in turn, it depends upon the quality of education and skill development programmes and hence there is an imperative necessity for the corporate sector that India produces a “talent pool” through proper education system. In fact manpower crunch in India has often hit many institutional functions and also affected badly flagship schemes of the government including Sarva Shikshan Abhiyan with an investment of Rs.54,371 crores; NRHM with the budget of Rs.51417 crores, ICDs with the spending of Rs.27,384 crores and abort all MGNREGs with an expenditures of Rs.1,21,861 crores. They suffered because of absence of adequate number of trained personnel with the basic educational background, apart from lack of good governance.
Population V/s Food Problem
The world population is expected to cross 9 billion in 2050 from 7 billion and India’s to 1.7 billion from 1.2 billion in 2011. The question, therefore, arises is whether the world is ready with adequate food for the gigantic size of its habitats. At the beginning of 2011 food industry around the globe is in a crisis because economic recession prices have peaked even when millions of people languish in poverty and hunger leading to food riots, land grabbing, export bans, etc.
In India government ought to be mainly concerned with feeding its growing population because high volatile prices have made the life of below poverty line people miserable. Tragedy in India is that large quantity of food is wasted in and near the farms; rats, mice and locusts eat the crops in the fields and then huge quantity is allowed to rot for want of storage facilities even while millions go hungry to bed every night. Indian population suffered even at the time of freedom and hence they still remain non-independent of hunger even while they call India shining but India is actually starving. Irony is that more number of people go hungry in India than in Pakistan. There are many remedies to meet the challenges of hunger of India’s population. Innovation in agriculture, a sustainable food security to the poor and above all revival of green revolution are some of them. There must have improved production and supply management to provide food to every member of society; subsidy is not the “be all and end all” remedy to feed the poor population in the country, but the political will to provide adequate food to the hungry population is the basic need.
Population Surge V/s Unemployment Scourge
“Unemployment” problem is a curse on a socially structured nation like India which aspires to climb the ladder upwards towards a great power plateau, because it pulls down the ascendancy through the socio-economic deficiency strings affecting the nation’s forward march. Whether, it was in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria or Yemen, it is the unemployed youth who are in the front line of ‘jasmine revolution’. We find them in the form of separatists, terrorists, Marxists or Naxalites in different parts of India because unemployment thrives out of excess population within the nation. There is impatient among the unemployed and chronic unemployment is like a ‘ticking bomb’ as explained by Chris Grayling, the British Employment Minister.
India with the demand for talent for outweighing supply, the struggle to recruit new people takes a narrow path even while increase in population walks through highways. Rural sector in particular is plagued by both direct and disguised unemployment and in cities companies find it difficult to procure employable youth for the right job.
In India not only 38% live under poverty but crores are unemployed or under employed. Further, there is brain drain of skilled and highly talented with 11.4m immigrants going abroad even when 5.4m immigrants coming to India. Most of the immigrant workers from India are from IT, plumbers, masons, carpenters, electricians, doctors, engineers, etc. On the other hand, India’s employment market is severally affected by the reservation mania perpetuated by the vote bank political dispensations. It is a shortsighted and opportunistic policy which has created more problems than solving. This policy negates that principle that all people do not have equal talents but all should have an equal opportunity to develop such talents to get employed.
In Nutshell
In nutshell, it must be stated that population is the most important factor in the growth, peace, progress and prosperity of our nation. The issue must be dealt with through a deliberately woven policy which must ensure to drive away the negative aspects but enlist positive imperatives for the good of the nation. Reaping the ‘demographic dividend’ must be the ultimate objective of our national population policy in this direction.
Author is an economist and a former General Manager of Vijaya Bank
A Tribute To Apple Founder
& To Global Change Makers !
Rakesh Manchanda
We humans tend to be selfish. While working on computers for decades, I never took the time to learn more about Steve Jobs and his inspiring life, even though I used his innovative devices that made my life easy and communicate with many. Let me share with you a slice of his life that I learned after his sad demise. According to Jay Elloit, a former APPLE executive, Steve Jobs encouraged productivity and was never driven by `stock price`. He was not driven by money. He simply loved to create things, be it in his garage or at his corporate headquarters in Cupertino. Stay hungry ! Stay foolish ! was his famous teachings to young minds. Today, many cities across America can relate to India`s Anna brand demonstrations against unfair protection to Wall Street and Black Money. At the same time, we see people with flowers and candles paying their tribute to Steve Jobs. One such placard on television reads : Break the Wall and Let the Street stand alone. Jaya Kamlani, who is an activist friend, a Steve Jobs supporter and a compulsive writer from America fears,” We shall soon see in America what we saw recently in Egypt, if they don’t create jobs in America fast enough.” Death today is helpless and is unable to overshadow Steve Jobs’ life. As he put it: “Death is life’s change agent.” Years ago, distressed at the 30-second startup time for the early Mac, he asked the systems programmer: “Even if it took you three days to make it a single second faster, it would be worth it.” Result ? a full three seconds were skimmed off. Steve knew that due to cancer, death was lurking around the bend. He used this fear as a time management tool and stole oxygen from hidden challenges. During his days of struggle in his professional life, he would stand in front of the mirror and rehearse his speech to become a better communicator. One of his famous quotes he used to rehearse was: “If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do?” If the answer was a simple “NO” for several days in a row, then he believed it called for a change in his life. Let us examine how Steve Jobs steered his life. He transformed the technology, communications and the music industry. He introduced the first personal computer: the Macintosh. He also inaugurated the `post-PC` world. Forced by the executive board to leave Apple, he returned in 1997 to save the drifting company. However, in that decade out, his company created the “OS” operating system, while he went on to create the animation company Pixar and launched the NEXT Computer, a company that did not take off. It was Apple that blocked the music industry’s free-fall with the introduction of its iTunes software and an innovative distribution system.Though digital music players and smart phones were familiar things, the iPod and iPhone as media puts were rich and novel creations. Going toe-to-toe in competition with Amazon’s “Kindle” tablet for downloading books, Apple lured its customers and shareholders to its sleek and user-friendly iPad. From the mouse and the graphical user interface, to the essential touch screens and applications, it seems unthinkable that one human being could have played such a decisive role, working with different product teams from the design phase to the product rollout plan. In many ways, his personality seeped into his products, and his work philosophy was shaped by Thomas Edison and Karl Marx. He understood and promoted work as a religion, carefully calibrating mileage per second. Why is the world so touched by Steve Jobs’ death? It is not just love for Apple’s innovations, but rather Steve’s modest life story, his leadership skills, and work ethics. Although Apple has an impressive Public Relations team, people knew how to reach him: “sjobs@apple.com”. Flooded with complaints and suggestions, at times he asked his staff to leave him alone to respond to the sea of emails. In his career, he tried again, failed again, failed better, and succeeded spectacularly, except for cancer, which corrupted his body in an irreversible mode. He had lived life to his fullest, through thick and thin, sometimes selling empty coke bottles at 5 cents apiece in his youth. Steve Jobs was ahead of his time. Like Madonna, he constantly reinvented himself.
The teacher who inspired me most.
Prof. B. M. Hegde,
hegdebm@gmail.com
I had many teachers at every stage of my school life that inspired me to forge ahead with confidence. Among them I would like to pay a special tribute, for the purpose of this article, to Dr. Walter Somerville, the chief of cardiology at the Middlesex and Harefield Hospitals in London and, the then editor of the British Heart Journal (now called Heart), who had the maximum influence on my career in general and my research interests in cardiology and my writings in particular. He was my mentor and a great motivator in addition to being the best clinician. He is my role model in life too. In his death a few years ago I had the same feeling of loss that I had felt when my parents died.
An Irishman by birth, Walter had his early education in Dublin and moved to London for further training as he felt medicine in Dublin is very much controlled by religion then. Originally he wanted to be a journalist but fate took him to the medical school instead although he was a journalist for three decades as the editor of the prestigious British Heart Journal with great distinction. His early training did help him a lot. He trained to be a cardiologist training with Paul Wood at the Hammersmith Hospital and was in fact assisted Paul Wood in the first historic cardiac catheterization done in the UK in 1939 He was a close confident and colleague of the two founder fathers of British cardiology, Paul Wood and Evan Bedford. When Paul Wood had a heart attack in 1962, he wanted Walter to treat him. He eventually succeeded Evan Bedford to be the chief at the Middlesex Hospital and Paul Wood at the Harefield regional cardiology centre. He had a long stint of cardiology training in Paris which at that time was the Mecca of cardiology. Walter edited the original British cardiology textbook by Paul Wood after the latter died with the help of other students and colleagues of Late Paul Wood. Walter had the unique distinction of serving as the President of British Cardiac Society for five terms!
He married his own student, a dynamic paediatric cardiologist, Jane Somerville, who is one of the leading authorities in her field even to this day. She goes round the world teaching and lecturing. She was a consultant at the National Heart Hospital in London where she had created the first Grown up Children’s Cardiac Unit. Between the husband and the wife they had some of the best research papers in cardiology. Jane bore him four children all of whom are doing very well in life. Having been a consultant to the air force, Walter contributed a lot to the British forces for which he was honoured by the Queen as a Commandant of the British Empire. Walter was in the British air force during the second World War and was closely involved with invasion of Japan where he was badly burnt. He narrowly missed becoming a fighter pilot. He was so handsome and had such fine English accent that MGM studios wanted to take him as an actor but Walter denied the offer.
My life changed a lot after I came in contact with Walter. When I was his senior registrar at the Middlesex Hospital, he used to take me to his editorial office during free time and taught me the house keeping details of journalism and research. I worked with him on a couple of research projects. He got me a place to work under Nobel laureate Bernard Lown at the Harvard Medical School which gave me an insight into some of the great minds in cardiology at that time like Lewis Dexter, Sonnenblick and Eugene Braunwald, to mention a few.
His universal compassion as a great doctor, his love for humanity, his keen sense of observation, his critical view of medical research, his incisive intellect and above all his indomitable courage gave me excellent examples to live and work. One incidence is worth mentioning here. He was eighty two and working full time. He was on his way home at 7 pm in the dark on a cold wintry night, walking the distance between the hospital and his home for his daily exercise. He was waylaid by two black youth mugging him to rob him of his belongings. They left him bleeding unconscious on the pavement in the Regent’s Park in the heart of London. Later he was picked up and in the hospital a large blood clot was removed from his brain. That left him blind in one eye with a future threat to the other eye as well. A year later he became totally blind. That did not deter Walter from working full time using talking books and journals and writing extensively with the help of his secretary. He could not, however, see patients after that. He lived another decade that way full of life. I had to spend time with him each time I went to London where I found him his usual self. He knew his way round his large pent house. He could even fill his wine glass without spilling. Never once did I hear him complain!
The last time I saw him he was showing signs of imminent death. I had discussed with Jane about my observations and she did agree. He died in peace a few days later. I wrote an obituary in the British Medical Journal about this great man, my mentor and an example of a man who was an ideal teacher, a thinker, honest researcher, a good husband, a doting father, a great clinician and, above all, a motivator par excellence to hundreds of his trainees. A line about his universal compassion is not out of place here. I was there with him again as Commonwealth Fellow in cardiology when my mother came down with cancer. Being the only child and my father having died earlier, I had the responsibility to be by her side at the crucial time. My term was getting over in a couple of months.
When I met him to ask for advice I could see his eyes filling with tears! Without a word he asked his secretary to get him Sir John McMichael on the phone. Sir John was another great cardiologist at the Hammersmith Hospital, who was at that time the head of the Commonwealth Commission. He told Sir John that I must be relieved immediately with all my expenses paid by the commission to get back to be with my mother. He also told Sir John that I must be given a second term after my mother gets well if I wished to. I did get back and was a rare case where one got the Fellowship twice.
I had noticed similar empathy shown to patients in distress many times in the wards. He had a great respect for me as a cardiologist. He used to think that I was a good teacher. When he retired in 1982 from the Middlesex Hospital the NHS was going to abolish his post for want of funds. He saw that I was appointed a visiting professor of cardiology in his place for a month every year as long as I wanted, with a hon. consultant status at the Middlesex. His other colleague, another of my great teachers, Late Richard Emanuel, was also very helpful in recommending my name for the post. If I am not mistaken it was the first such appointment there. Richard was another of my role models. Richard’s wife Lavinia treats me as their own son.
In conclusion, here was a great man that inspired generations of his students to be good doctors, a breed that is threatening to be extinct in this era of corporate medicine where money rules the roost with compassion and patient care being relegated to the background. Modern medicine which had been hijacked by technology today has become a bane to society according to the recent audits in fourteen industrialized countries. At this crucial time we need more teachers like Walter to change the sad state of affairs to stop the sad demise of clinical medicine. May his tribe increase!
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