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BIHAR-ELECTION 2015

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THE WAY FORWARD

I&C in its editorial extension, Month-in-Perspective of November 2015, had expressed its views, on the, then ongoing electoral battle in Bihar, and we quote,

“It’s all out war in Bihar. Prime Minister Modi appears to be on a long term election mode. It is as if, ‘if he is not travelling abroad then he is at an election rally.’ His attack appeared to be, no holds barred. He is using his gift of gab, which none of the Prime Ministers of the past had, to the NDA advantage. But will it really be advantageous or prove antagonistic in the ultimate analysis! All political leaders try to mudsling at opponents, especially during election time. Some may stick and some may not stick. But the bad taste can linger. As a Prime Minister of the country, his responsibility at a sense of proportion, is far higher, than say Nitish Kumar or Lalu Prasad. Hence his ‘no holds-barred’ attack on all and sundry, especially Nitish & Lalu can have the Bihar voters on the defensive and therefore, at least to some extent, can lead to negative voting against NDA”

“Coming to Nitish Kumar, all Indians are privy to the fact that he has done better than, 15 years’ misrule of Lalu and his wife. There is therefore an element of trust Biharis repose in Nitish administration. That is expected to influence at the hustings. But his association with Lalu has certainly dented such possibility. This is what Modi is exploiting. From the survey of the poll scene, it appears mixed fortune for both sides. May be Nitish Kumar deserves to be given a chance, since he is one of the few Chief Ministers who scored better than many in the shifting development dynamics. Of course, it is left entirely to the Biharis to decide their fate vis-a-vis the newly elected government.” unquote. 

In the event, it was ‘In Bihar, Nitish andar, Modi bahar’.

In the wake of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s assassination by her Sikh body guards, and the LokSabha election that followed, with Rajeev Gandhi, a political novice, having been made the leader of Congress, the nation had given a clean sweep with some 430 seats to the Congress, over ¾ majority, on sympathy wave.

Ramakrishna Hegde, the then Janata Chief Minister of Karnataka had remarked before the election, who is Rajeev Gandhi? After the unprecedented election victory Rajeev Gandhi had paid the compliments back. Reportedly he had remarked “Hegde got his answer, who is Rajeev Gandhi. In Karnataka, Hegde has become irrelevant". Assembly election in Karnataka followed and Hegde wasn’t sure, despite his credentials, with Indira sympathy wave, whether he would make it to the Bangalore Vidhana Saudha. In the event, matured Karnataka voters knew, what was good for Karnataka and Hedge romped home with resounding victory.

Exit poll on 5th Nov had indicated mixed fortune with one indicating 160/180 seats for the Mahagathbandhan of Nitish Lalu combine, while another said some 150 seats for NDA. However overall, it did give an edge for Mahagathbandhan. One of the major channel NDTV even analyzed all exit polls and came to a conclusion after elaborate detailing that NDA will romp home with clear majority at over 130 seats. Funnily, a spokesperson of BJP appearing in the panel discussion even commented ‘For once NDTV and Pranoy Roy are correct in assessing the situation.’ It is another matter that NDA managed just 58 seats only, and the Mahagathbandhan walked away with more than 2/3rd of total seats at 178, which was more than 3 times of NDA. Result went horribly wrong for NDA and more particularly for BJP and its Modi/Shah mascot.

By any stretch of imagination, this kind of result was simply not anticipated. Despite exit poll, a neck to neck fight was expected, since both sides had given its utmost in terms of effort, rhetorics and bad mouthing in equal measure.

Now that the result has come and started to sink in, the reactions were many and kaleidoscopic. While those who have lost, shall have their plates full to explain the rout, those who won, necessarily has to have grace in victory. But the loud mouth Lalu Prasad Yadav, was his ebullient sardonic self. Indeed it’s a pity that Lalu’s RJD was the party with the highest number of seats. However it may be comfortable to think that they all voted to RJD since it was in alliance with Nitish, and hence it was Brand-Nitish that carried the day. But, Lalu cannot be always trusted to play to norms. He can be difficult. It is something, one has to wait and see. But the victory in Bihar has already gone to the head of Lalu. He is already baying for the blood of Modi. “After Diwali and once the government in put in place, I will organize a rally in Varanasi, PM’s electoral constituency” while adding “The Modi/RSS government will be demolished. I will launch a nationwide stir against Modi. We will uproot Modi government”.

Right enough, Yogendra Yadav had reportedly tweeted “Thanks, It’s a vote against politics of hatred & propaganda. But Lalu coming back is also not a way forward for Bihar.” 

While it is true that Nitish should not allow Lalu & his coterie to influence the course of governance, Lalu need to recognize, Modi is little too tall for Lalu to handle outside Bihar. He has a huge history of misdeeds, record of sleaze, the infamous Chaara Ghotaala, promotion of wife, children and cronies besides complete lack of interest in governance. As compared to Lalu, Narendra Modi is on a totally different level. He is in a sense, an international sensation. The kind of aura he has been able to create on foreign soil, be it U.S, U.K or UAE, it’s a stuff dreams are made of. Lalu is nowhere near him. Modi’s over confidence did him in. Lalu cannot win support beyond Bihar. In Bihar too he has won only because of the Grand Alliance led by Nitish Kumar. But, it is also true that the vitriolic negative barbs of both Modi and Amit Shah could be exploited by Lalu raising the self respect element of Biharis.

If Lalu has been given a lease of life, it is entirely due to Modi/ Amit Shah polemics, so completely distasteful and smacking of arrogance.  

Dislike of Modi/ Amit Shah barb was of such order that Congress, which had no hope of winning even a single seat went home with 27 seats in the 41 they contested. While electioneering, Modi had taunted the Grand Alliance for giving 40 seats to Congress. “Thanks for giving us those 40 seats on a platter. We have already won those.” That was the kind of overconfidence that misfired badly.

But what really went wrong for NDA, for BJP, for Modi and his confidant Amit Shah? In the final analysis, more than anybody else, the Modi Shah duo, has most of the responsibility for the unexpected reversal of fortune for BJP in Bihar.

It is very true, and has to be accepted rather grudgingly, at this moment in the history of India, there is no leader comparable to Modi. His greatest strength is without being weak, like other mortals, towards the three Ws. Women, Wine & Wealth, are the weakness most men suffer from, if not all three, at least one of them. This non-corrosive quality gives him an unprecedented dynamism. But unfortunately he suffers from a king sized ego, and the belief that ‘King can do no wrong’.

All those who are making noises against Modi and his BJP are not truly qualified to make any comments. Their credentials, whether Congress, RJD or Shiv Sena, are known and does not inspire confidence. Only person, who is qualified at this juncture, as Modi & BJP licking their wound, is Nitish Kumar. His leadership is credible and he is not making any noise. 

Modi won in 2014, because, he had a Gujarath record, may be little hyped, but also the central government of the day. UPA II, was seen as incompetent or corrupt or both. Modi had gone hammer & tong lampooning all, be it Manmohan Singh the former Prime Minister, be it Congress President Sonia Gandhi, or her son Rahul Gandhi. His relentless attack carried the day. The electorates, at least 31% of them, voted for him and his NDA. Rest, as the cliché goes, is history. He appeared, for a while at least, very statesmanlike in his public utterances. Was it just a veneer! However, every time when there was an election, he was simply a BJP politician. He forgot, he is the Prime Minister of the country. Victory, at all cost, had to be won, was his modus operandi. Delhi was a test case. He branded Arvind Kejriwal in the same brush as he did with UPA II, dishonest and corrupt. He and his party lost very badly. No lesson learnt. He repeated the same verbose against Nitish Kumar, and it backfired.

Despite being extremely busy with his foreign travels and his position as the Prime Minister of the Country, he addressed more than 30 election rallies in Bihar. An opposition MP remarks, “Never in independent India’s history, have we seen a sitting prime minister getting involved to such an extent in a state election”. And this remark is echoed across the political spectrum. Thus if it is concluded as a personal defeat of Narendra Modi, truth is not far from that, whatever else his friends and well-wishers in BJP want the world to believe. 

So, is there room for course correction? It’s a question NDA, more precisely BJP has to ponder. It is true that, BJP succeeded in replacing Congress in the national scene and emerged as the biggest political party. But can it remain there for infinity, or even beyond 2019! By the way Modi government is going about administering the country and treating opposition ruled states, it is very likely that goodwill earned in 2014, shall be tapering off and shall be difficult to hold on to the victory margin of 2014. Therefore course correction is a must, whether the party likes it or not. Yes, it is not BJP per se, it is more to do with Modi and the party president Amit Shah. It is the style of functioning of Modi that is being called to question. But the problem, like Vir Sanghvi says “Prime Minister does not like to concede points to his critics or to change course. But this electoral disaster should give him reason to pause and rethink his strategy”. He should not mistake courage to stubbornness.

Will he?! May be, he will! Since there is no other option. However best he is, he is not indispensable. It is in his own interest and that of his party, and of course India as a whole, he needs to change in his approach to issues and people.

If the style of his campaigning, where he made offensive, insulting remarks against opponents, is one of the factors, his own contribution to the development story, he is always talking about, is much to be desired. Electorates in Bihar were told by Modi’s opponents that, while he is always busy either being abroad or electioneering in some states, development has taken a beating, it has been relegated to back seat. Hence, if the opponents asked ‘where is the development,’ voters were made to understand, ‘you can’t trust Modi with development.’ Hence, at the husting, it was double whammy for Modi. 

Yes, election over, Mahagathbandhan of JD(U), RJD & Congress is in power in Bihar. Before the 2019 LokSabha election, there are 5 states to go for election in 2016, and some more in 2017. From now to May 2019, there are 3½ years, or some 42 months. 18 months have passed without any promised Acche Din for Indians, but it looks almost there, the Burre Din for BJP, if the government in Delhi does not perform and deliver.  

Ending this November, we can always take stock of 555 days of Modi government’s being in power. Besides some favourable foreign policy initiatives, there have been some infrastructural initiatives in social engineering, like opening bank a/c under Jan Dhan Yojana, insurance covers on life, pension and accident, model village initiatives by MPs, toilets in schools, etc. But many larger issues have remained stuck for varieties of reasons. It is also true that being a very decisive Prime Minister decisions were taken without procrastination and no scams are reported. So, it has some positives, but they are not enough. Indeed, its ‘Ye dil mange more’.

Coming to the pending major issues, like GST bill and Land acquisition bill are the major legislation requiring passage. Modi necessarily has to take the opposition on board. He has to reinvent himself for the larger good. He has to climb down from the ivory tower that he has perched. It is also true that, opposition too need to recognize the strength of the Prime Minister. Just because, he suffers from numerical weakness in Rajya Sabha, the politics should not derail the development. Both Modi and opposition have to make amends to their rigid stand.

Certain amount of maturity must come into play for the larger good. Modi & BJP must give up its attitude, 'that all that they have done, they are doing, is the best, and only they have the interest of the country and others are all jokers'. As the Hindi saying goes, ‘HER KUTTE KA EK DIN HOTA HAI’. BJP and Modi, after the initial feel-good atmosphere created by wordsmith Modi; slowly started slipping, especially his negative remarks on opposition. Those remarks had indeed left bad taste. But both party and Modi refused to recognize the damage it has done to the bonhomie between Treasury & opposition benches.

The latest loss of face for BJP and Modi provide the ammunition for opposition to harden its stand. But in the national interest peace has to be brought about for the development to take place. Modi thought, only way to bring about change is to have numerical power in Rajya Sabha. But the way he went about has failed in Bihar and is not likely to succeed elsewhere unless he changes his tactics, but more importantly his attitude.

Right now, opposition is charged since it has already seen the blood. Modi has to make the first move. His 1.25 lakh crore package to Bihar. When he made the announcement, it was politics. But wisdom should prevail. He should call a meeting between the C.M Nitish Kumar and P.M, himself, and ask Nitish Kumar’s suggestion, how can centre release this 1.25 lakh crores in stages, so that the promise that CM has made to his people can be realized as soon as possible. This single move alone can take the wind out of opposition sail. And possibly win him friends in place of adversaries, including Nitish Kumar.

Development is always possible due to co-operation, not in absolutism. Rajeev Gandhi had more than 430 seats in Loksabha, but he lost even a simple majority of 270 seats in the election that followed after 5 years. He failed because of his self assertion. Modi has the benefit of history, for course correction, as he goes along. And we all know that, those who do not remember history are condemned to repeat it.

As Sudhendra Kulkarni puts it “The BJP rout in Bihar has suddenly become a turning point in Indian politics. Modi will have to display an altogether different model-wise, benign, inclusive, accommodative, humble, tolerant and trustworthy-of leadership for his remaining period in office to become smooth and productive. Failure in his past to do so will surely bring 2019 closure, with all its grim implication for BJP.”  

Opening of FDI has to be people centric. An FDI which cannot help India achieve better HDI (Human Development Index) is bound to fail in the long run. The idea of governance should be to achieve a JUST SOCEITY, leading to the empowerment of last man on the development ladder. Hope Modi sees what is written in the wall.    

J. Shriyan