October 2020 focus

US Presidential Election 2020 United States of America, referred to as a Super Power in a Multi-Polar world, is world’s most powerful nation. It has enough and more to its credit to be called a Super Power, whether the size of the economy in monetary terms or the size of its arsenal, there isn’t any country to match it. Former USSR was the only competitor, more due to its stock-pile of arms and ammunitions, which the present day Russia is not comparable. The 21st century leadership of China is trying hard to displace USA or US as generally referred to, as the only Super Power, but so far couldn’t succeed in realizing this dream. Unlike US, the Peoples Republic of China is a centrally controlled polity with communist ideology hence has largely restricted personal freedom to its citizens. US is an open society with a democratic way of life with abundant freedom to its citizens. With its economic and military might, world looks at it with a degree of respect, reserved only for the US. That is how, the President of United States of America, is arguably the most powerful person on the earth, therefore, the election of the President of United States of America means a great deal to the world at large. On 3rd November 2020, United States of America is going to its electorates to elect its 46th President. The contestants are, the incumbent president Donald John Trump, all of 74 years and Joseph Robinette Biden or Joe Biden. Representing Republicans is Donald Trump and Democrats, Joe Biden, who is 77. As such Donald Trump is the oldest president US ever had. Should Joe Biden make it to the White House after November 3, 2020; he will be the oldest occupant of the most powerful global address! The incumbent President Donald Trump is trying his best to keep the job, whereas Joe Biden appears to be currently ahead of Trump. But would Trump outsmart Biden, as he did Hillary Clinton, 4 years ago! Or will Democratic nominee Joseph Robinette Biden, walk into the White House as the 46th president of the United States of America, since he is ahead and steady in his lead in the popularity polls! It’s a good question. “I am not going to be confident about Joe Biden’s winning this election until he’s inaugurated on January 20th” writes Tom Mc Carthy in The Guardian. The lead which Democrat Biden enjoys is reportedly consistent and stable, more than 7 points. It’s not because Biden has a stronger case to be the occupant of the White House, but because there is an anti-incumbency wave against Donald Trump. Donald John Trump born in June 1946 was a political novice when he came into the White House. A pure and a hardcore businessman, like his father Frederick Christ Trump, Donald Trump too got into real estate business, and was fairly successful at that. Their specialization was development of residential projects, may be because the government used to provide federal loan guarantees. Modus operandi of Trump duo was to overestimate the cost to get larger bank loans. The trick back-fired and states stopped loan guarantees to their residential projects. Both father and son were adapt at smart tricks to hoodwink the system. Donald Trump managed four military draft deferment for education, so also he managed to secure a bone spurs diagnosis and succeeded in getting medical exemption into the military draft during Vietnam War in 1968. Even in his early days of public life as a businessman there were complaints against Trump Organization of racial discrimination against African Americans and some minority groups. However despite being sued for violation of fair practices by the US Department of Justice, he challenged with a counter claim of US$100 million for loss of reputation. Thus, the fighter in him, for right or for wrong, was evident pretty early. When he was 22, in 1968, Donald Trump graduated from Wharton School of Finance & Commerce (WSFC) and got into father’s business full time. He had his share of brush with the authorities for unacceptable business practices but always managed to remain on the right side of the law with some pecuniary reprimands only. In fact his selection to WSFC for his graduate course itself is mired in controversy, of someone else giving the selection test on his behalf, claims his niece Mary Trump. Around post 1980, he started to think loudly about the possible pot-shot at the US presidency. But nothing serious happened until 2000, when he published a book AMERICA WE DESERVE. The book had his conservative economic views and liberal social views and suddenly he was in larger public view. He had other books as well to his credit. It was only during 2012 presidential election he was seen and heard in public more often. More because he reportedly and falsely claimed that President Barack Obama was not a natural born US citizen. So another quality of the man is to start with the negative, so that you attract more eyeballs. Was it a case of ‘method in madness’? In June 2015, Trump announced his candidature to the White House, pledging to ‘make America great again’ and promised to create millions of jobs and to punish those American Companies that exported jobs overseas. Come November 2016, Donald John Trump managed to ‘pull the rabbit’ despite being a rank outsider. He won the Electoral College vote by 304 to 227 of Hillary Clinton. World couldn’t believe that he pulled off a sensational victory over his formidable democratic opponent, former secretary of state, Hillary Clinton! The surprise outcome shook America and the world, especially because Hillary Clinton won the popular vote at 48% compared to Trump at 46%. But Trump won the electoral votes and therefore the presidency. Trump was one of the only 5 presidents to have won this way. No one had a clue, what kind of policy preferences the new president had. An impetuous, bottomlessly ignorant, almost chemically inattentive Donald Trump was a maverick of a different kind, informs the public space; a loose cannon without direction, highly whimsical, devoid of ideology and of course extremely self-serving. After 4 years in the Oval office, he saw to it that all those ‘nay’ sayer bureaucrats who thought they will outsmart and outlast the president have mostly gone into the wilderness. They had to leave and Trump is going strong by the day at least until 3rd November 2020. World has seen the way this man, the world’s most powerful man, how has he operated from the White House! He has contempt for everything that he does not agree. He is not an ideologically committed person. His sole goal has probably been to earn the name as the greatest president of the US. Is he working to a plan? Or so it seems! He began his presidential innings saying America First? Was he in love with America? Not really. He was in love with himself. By keeping the ‘America First’ he kept a section of Americans to vote for him. So, ultra nationalists found a hero. Having got elected, his presidency ensured one of the highest growth in the American economy, doesn’t matter, if by accident or by design! So, he has more admirers! In the process he has alienated himself from some section or some countries, so be it. So, is he divisive? For him it doesn’t matter, if it ensures him the continued presidency of the US. It is true that media keep talking that Democratic nominee Joe Biden is doing well at the popularity charts. A recent report informs that 2/3rd of Indian diaspora is supporting Joe Biden. But Indians preference for Donald Trump almost doubled from last time round! It was 16% in 2016 and it has jumped to 28% informs the report, and there are still 50 days to go. Anything can happen in these 50 days. There is a deeply held view that he mismanaged Covid 19 pandamic which led to some 200,000 deaths in the US. But why blame Trump. All that he had told was ‘take it easy’. Was he casual and tentative as some accuse him to be! But its Americans, how they would have reacted to a stiff lockdown! Most of the west was hardly serious. It is true Donald Trump refused to wear a mask. It was almost after 5 months that Trump decided to wear a mask. The accusation that as the 1st citizen of the country he was unable to contain the virus is largely misplaced. However given his penchant for blaming everybody else, except himself, certainly smacks of petulance of a juvenile bully. ‘It is an election in which each side seems to view a victory by the other as an existential threat’, said Brad Bannon, a Washington-based Democratic strategist. “It seems to me that the stakes are about as high as you can get,” Bannon said. “We have a president who has proved incapable of fighting the pandemic, which has killed almost 200,000 Americans now, and could cause irreparable damage to the economy. We are facing a climate change crisis, we have a racial crisis,” Bannon continued. “And I think the main question is, which of the two men do you want to have, to deal with the major problems in the United States?” However with all his negatives, if they have to be called negative, there is some kind of a decisive streak in Trump. He is very clear about two aspects of terror and Chinese attempt at hegemony. In his approach to handling terror related issues he has been consistent. He always backed India, in its ‘no-compromise with terror’ stand with Pakistani support to terror on its soil. Similarly when it came to Chinese intransigencies in its hegemonistic tendencies in promoting its economic power leading to subjugation of national interest of receiving countries, Trump was always clear. China always believed in dominance rather than co-operative co-existence. India consistently opposed the Chinese economic pressure, besides its territorial excesses. The famous Belt & Road initiative of China was meant not only to increase the strategic footprints of China but also to enslave economically the receiving countries. India always opposed such economic colonisation. Having appreciated the Indian stand, Trump administration stood by India in its dealing with China. However, among all his negatives and positives, what stands out globally, is his ability in bringing some of the Arab countries to recognise Israel and normalize relations with a country Arabs loved to hate. That indeed is a kind of diplomatic coup, a masterstroke. Middle East has always been a trouble spot with Palestine and Israel perennially daggers drawn. But with UAE (United Arab Emirates) and Kingdom of Bahrain signing to open embassies in Tel Aviv, détente has been given a huge thumbs up. With Saudi Arabia opening up sky for aircrafts to fly to & fro Israeli airports, it’s only a matter of time that a formal relation between the leader of Muslim world, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Israel is established. No wonder, Donald Trump is being spoken about being nominated for Nobel Peace Prize. Certainly it is to the credit of President Donald Trump to have achieved this near impossible break-through, since Israel was a pariah among Arab nations surrounding the patch of land off the Mediterranean coast. Conceived in oppression and born in war, on 14th May 1948, Israel had arrived at least to co-exist among Arabs, thanks largely due to the efforts of Donald Trump, especially his son-in-law Jared Kushner, after seven decades of tumultuous existence. As it happened in 2016, even this time round Democrats candidate is getting more and more support. Early in September "81 Nobel laureates back Biden" was the news datelined Washington. But then in 2016 too, ‘70 Nobel laureates’ had endorsed Hillary Clinton for the US presidency. So where the wind is blowing, it is difficult to predict. Thus, it may be safe to bet that both candidates are evenly poised. It is true, that both, Biden and Trump are more or less same in terms of age, although Trump is younger than Biden by clear 4 years. However age is showing with Biden and Trump appearing generally aggressive, taunting "low energy Joe", while it is true that Donald Trump is the oldest president US had. But Biden looks rather tired and dispirited. The other day Biden came to the press meet without his press note. But the charge that Joe Biden has suffered from series of self-inflicted gaffes throughout his political career is not an exaggeration. So like his Vice Presidential candidate Kamala Harris has accidentally remarked and then retracted immediately thereafter. She had referred to the administration after November 3 elections, as 'Harris Administration'. Normally it should have been "Biden Administration", assuming Joe Biden gets elected as the 46th president of the US. Was she articulating the possibility that Joe Biden would become a lame duck president, only to carry out Kamala Harris’ vision! This has given ammunition to Republicans to harp on. Whether Kamala Harris has withdrawn the remark or not the damage was done. Especially with one like Donald Trump who is waiting for 'gaffes' from opposite camp, this was like ‘made to order’. These gaffes need not be very seriously taken. But in an atmosphere of larger involvement of press, these incidents are recorded for posterity. Surely even Donald Trump could have incidents where he could be ridiculed. But Trump does not suffer from mental blocks of yesterdays. Every day is a new day for him and he tries to outgrow his failings of yesterday and people have notorious memory anyway! They forget many things of passing importance, pretty soon. Hence those who do not live in the memory of the past have a freshness of approach. Of course truth may be a casualty many a time, in such circumstances. It is true that ‘some of those who voted for him in November 2016 may be disillusioned. Equally those who were Trump neutral or negative have moved over to him for his economic policies, libertarian handling of Covid 19, anti-China policies and delivering on electoral promises (including exiting trade deals, climate agreements and international organizations). Above all Trump’s relentless positivity energises millions of Americans who are tired of hearing the US is beset by problems’ writes Kanti Bajpai in Times of India. All in all, despite many negatives, apparent & perceived, Donlad Trump may not be easy to push over especially for the likes of Joe Biden and may even come up triumphs at the US presidential hustings. Keep your legs and fingers crossed. You can be in for a surprise. J.Shriyan