FOCUS-APRIL 2022

ELECTIONS 2022-2024- WHAT NEXT ? Elections come and elections go. In a democracy it’s nothing new. It’s been happening for all the past 75 years. In the past we used to have what was called as General Election that is one country one election. For varieties of political reasons and machinations, it’s no more so. Due to this development, happened mostly during the period Indira Gandhi reigned, we have one Loksabha election for the whole country and state assembly elections on different dates. Hence there is election atmosphere during most part of the 5 years period, with election in one state or the other. With 8 elections due to be held in 2022, five of them are already over and the results of them are already there for all to see. Of the five states that went to elect its Members of Legislative Assembly, four have gone to the kitty of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), rightly or otherwise. Whether one likes it or not, at the end of the day JO JEETAA VAHEE SIKANDAR! The 5th state of Punjab has been bagged by Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). It was a landslide victory by any standard of comparison. States already completed the process of election are Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa & Manipur. The states expected to complete the process before 2022 are Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat and possibly even Jammu & Kashmir. There have been talks about the above assembly elections or state elections, could be a kind of precursor for the Loksabha election due in 2024. This assumption is not entirely misplaced for varieties of reasons. The result that we Indians have witnessed, has given a clear thumbs-up to the biggest political party of India, the BJP. It has managed to present its government once again to the people of 4 states, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa. The state of Punjab, however, has gone to Aam Aadmi Party. Of course it has been a kind of, an entirely unexpected scale of victory which needs to be looked into, since in all other states, where AAP contested the performance of AAP has been quite dismal. So, despite there being a plethora of political parties, only BJP and AAP have romped home in style. Of course emergence of AAP as victorious in Punjab, where it got over 3/4th number of seats, has led to remarks like, will AAP emerge as alternative to BJP! That’s a long shot by any stretch of imagination, as of now. But credit has to be given where it is due, although there are many stories floating in the social media about some external force inimical to Indian interest, has allegedly played sinister role in propping up the Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab. Be that as it may, this aspect is not the issue under Focus here. Here, we are trying to extrapolate the victory at state level to national level when election to Loksabha is due in 2024, especially because BJP has improved on its vote share in all five states that went to polls, so also the results have jolted the opposition unity moves. Writing in the print media, political analyst Paranjoy Guha Thakurta, said “since it is often stated that the road to Delhi starts from Lucknow, it is indisputable that the results of the election in UP will have far reaching impact on the future of the country’s politics and the contours of Indian democracy. However the importance of outcome of these assembly elections goes beyond the influence it will exert on the presidential election later this year”. While it is true that one out of every six Indians lives in UP, there are more people in UP than in Pakistan or Brazil so also most Prime Ministers of India have come from UP, including the present incumbent, the de facto head of the state. Prime Minister Narendra Modi got elected from Varanasi after leaving his regular constituency in Gujarat. Thus the importance of Uttar Pradesh as the swing state influencing the course of national politics cannot be denied. An editorial of a Mumbai based news paper, before the announcement of election results had commented, “Uttar Pradesh will lay down the road map for the future, both in terms of content and direction, given the volatile circumstances caused by the worst global pandemic and the consequent economic down turn have created”. Same media member had also commented before the result “If BJP wins again, (they were hoping BJP may not win), Narendra Modi’s prospect of retaining power for the 3rd term will doubtlessly brighten up once again,” while adding “It will, after all, be nothing short of a miracle if BJP pulls it off despite searing price rise, Covid mismanagement and unprecedented unemployment. The less said the better about the impact of the farmers’ agitation on western parts of the state. If BJP defies political logic to survive, the entire credit will go to Modi’s perseverance and the invincibility of the Hindutva agenda in northern India”. In the event, when the results came pouring in, it left nobody in doubt about the prospect of the biggest political party of India romping home in style. They won 273 seats, albeit less than 320 seats of 2019, out of 403 seats, which is clearly more than 2/3rd. While recognizing the importance of Uttar Pradesh in the national politics, there could be factors that keep such importance alive, even in 2024 scenario! For example, for the first time in over 3 decades, the same party was elected back to power. That shows, to a large extent, where the wind is blowing. International media had its own take on these elections to 5 states. While commenting on BJPs electoral victory in UP and elsewhere it had stated that ‘these victories once again reinforces the dominance of Prime Minister Modi in Indian politics for the foreseeable future’. Washington Post said “The results make Modi’s BJP the favorite to win the next national election in 2024”. The Daily Telegraph said “The election is expected to be a barometer for the national political mood”. Thus as political analyst Thakurta has stated, ‘contours of Indian democracy’ will certainly get affected by the electoral happenings in these 5 states, more so with Uttar Pradesh. However, it will be interesting to look at what really influenced the course in the electoral victory of BJP, especially in Uttar Pradesh. According to the findings of the Centre for the Study of Developing Society (CSDS), post poll survey 2022, ‘welfare scheme and its positive effects on people played an important role. However for UP in particular, religious polarization also played a crucial role in increasing BJP vote share and therefore victory’. Survey, reportedly, finds that people were more satisfied with central government schemes and the central leadership under PM Modi. This was across the state and therefore, this poll has set the course for 2024, in its own way. Survey also stated that both in UP and in Uttarakhand party mattered more than the candidate. According to Badri Narayan, Director of GB Pant Institute of Social Sciences, “One of the most important factors in BJPs success is the growing beneficiary consciousness among the poor, marginal and weaker sections. The other factor that worked in favour of BJP is Modi’s image. It is interesting to note that despite various complaints against the BJP led regime Modi still commands deep trust in the heart of the people in UP. Third important factor was law and order and Suraksha (safety in everyday life) and it worked in BJPs favour. It worked as security from crime, violence, land grab and the threat of muscle power”. Like many commentators, he too stressed the Hindutva narrative as a factor influencing the UP outcome. According to him “Hindutva polarization happened in silent mode without any Shree Ram Temple or Kashi Vishwanath corridor issue coming into election rhetoric with counter polarization playing some role among different groups”. No wonder political researcher Asim Ali called it “It was as much Ram as it was ration” while adding “There are two major national implications of the UP election. One Yogi, the first CM in the history of the state to be given a renewed mandate after completing a full term in office is now a leader of serious national prominence. And two, having yet again conquered the heartland of Indian politics, BJP has ensured that its national dominance is set to continue for the foreseeable future”. Seema Chishti, a journalist writer based in Delhi had her own take on similar lines. "What must leave the BJP pleased is that the elections from desperate states around India have resulted in its bettering its performance and by a significant margin. The BJP era appears to be in top gear and cruising", while adding "The decimation of the informal economy in UP has consequences that hurt the poorest. Youth unemployment is among the highest in the country and has grown in the past five years, with 16 lakhs fewer people employed in the state in 2022 than they were in 2017. NITI Ayog ranked UP at the bottom of the multi dimension poverty index. But the incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath returned to power, in a first since 1985. So in the face of deep economic distress BJP gets full majority in Lucknow, one must look at the implications of, when the voter does not factor his own well being when making electoral choices. The 'something else' that has driven Mr. Adityanath back to Mukhya Mantri Niwas must concern us". While it is true that there have been issues of all kinds which needed redress but still voters have preferred to bring back Yogi Adityanath, there must have been some profound reasons. The so-called Hindu Nationalist Party, the BJP, was in the fringe of national politics for a long time. From a mere 2 seats in 1984/85, slow and steady it inched its way up. From the largest opposition party in the parliament and some 4 state governments in 1990s, with its own coalition government, between 1998 to 2004 it has been a revelation. The party came back, as if with vengeance, in 2014 with its own government at the center without coalition crutches, repeated its victory in 2019 with increased number of seats, there must be some solid reasons which somehow media is refusing to recognize. In the meanwhile in 2017, UP electorates gave BJP 325 seats, the highest for any combination in UP, and it sent 80 MPs to the parliament in the 2019 election to Loksabha. It couldn't have happened just like that. All political analysts and their journo friends must ponder, before criticizing and writing it off. According to Swaminathan Anklesaria Aiyar, “The sheer scale of Yogi’s victory requires a re-assessment. Voters have shown their appreciation for Yogi’s improved administration in the delivery of various schemes. Critics tried to highlight a couple of communal phrases in Yogi’s speeches and portrayed these as his election thrust. This biased analysis blinded (these journos) to what really mattered. There is much more to Yogi than communalism and critics have ignored or down played many real achievements”. Then there are sections of society going en-bloc to certain camps, as it happened with SP in Uttar Pradesh and with TMC in West Bengal. If its polarization of one kind, reverse polarization has to happen. India is alive and kicking. Silent majority cannot be taken for granted for too long. They will decide the future of India. This reading has to be acknowledged by the media and the interlocutors therein. Hope it happens within the Idea of India.