FOCUS - MARCH 2024

ELECTION - 2024 IS IT A CAKE WALK TO NDA! OR IS IT A MISLEADING CAMPAIGN!

There is this social media post circulating with loaded wisdom, what happened in 2004 could happen in 2024, 20 years later, with 2 different governments having ruled the country for 10 years each, but presenting contrasting picture.

In a democratic political system, like we have in India, government comes and government goes, sometimes every five years, sometimes before that. Sometimes same governments repeat.

From 2004 to 2014 – UPA had ruled India with Congress in the driver’s seat. From 2014 to 2024, it was NDA, but without the baggage of coalition HEADACHE. For the first time in about 30 years BJP managed to remain in absolute majority, hence coalition partners couldn’t arm-twist the main party unlike UPA, where all and sundry called shots, although for record Sonia Gandhi was the UPA chairperson and was the remote control on the then Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh, the reluctant politician.

In 2004, it was NDA government in coalition with the members of National Democratic Alliance. It had ruled for the previous full term, of four and a half years, since the Loksabha election was advanced by 6 months. The then Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayei, along with his coordinator George Fernandes, preponed the election on the basis of general perception that NDA would romp home to form the government. But its calculations had all gone topsy-turvy, and NDA lost rather badly.

So going back to what really triggered the reversal of fortune at the hustings, there appears to be combination of different factors that went against NDA and its affiliates.

While it was true that the ‘voters have spoken’, who spoke and why or who should have spoken but did not speak, could be the ‘raison d'etre’ of the entire exercise.

There are many relevant questions that needs to be examined to come to a reasonable conclusion as to what really happened as the voters started turning up at the polling booths across the nation.

The government was basking at the feel good INDIA SHINING, before it advanced and announced the date of polling. However we all need to recognize that objectives of development exercise should be to create more jobs, improve health sector, expand basic education and making lives of poor more secure. Yes its only when people’s lives are made secure can we truly say we are developed. Only then shall India be truly shining.

And comes this post in the social media, “Media has now started to hype up 2024 elections as Modi win thereby ensure false complacency, among BJP voters. Overhype and possible easy victory can curb the excitement to vote. This happened in 2004 General Elections when BJP voters went on vacations and didn’t turn-up to vote in urban constituencies where it was expected to win.

This is the most dangerous game being played psychologically which the voters and party needs to be vary of. Complacency is being pushed through careful propaganda so that cadre and voters don’t feel the energy at all to work hard for the win. Such complacency was seen in Delhi LS elections, Delhi MCD elections, Mumbai BMC elections in 2017 when there was a reduced voter turnout or no-mood to vote by urban middle class as the winner was expected. This dimension can become costly in 2024 like what happened in 2004.,/P>

Came 2014, ‘Abki Baar Modi Sarkar’ slogan took home with 284 seats, clear 12 seats more than the 272 needed for the simple majority. Yes ‘Modi’ wave had made it possible for the BJP to make it to the rope on its own.

Came 2019, voters had clearly reposed greater faith in the leadership of Prime Minister Modi. BJP romped home with still greater number than what it had in the outgoing Loksabha. BJP won 303 seats on its own, 19 seats more than 2014 Loksabha election. NDA parties added another 50 seats to make the total 353 in the house of 542 seats, almost 2/3rd of the total strength. It was a magnificent show.

So what can happen in 2024! Will the Narendra Modi juggernaut roll once again! But more importantly will India win!

A doyen of English journalism in India, who is also referred to as Bheeshma of Indian journalism late Dr M.V. Kamath was commenting on a book ‘Jana Gana Mana – Reflections of a Sadak Chaap’. It was a collection of letters to the editor and to those in power, besides some articles by one of his respectful admirers. Writing an introduction to the book, he wrote “This collection contains an occasional article as well (besides letters) which are in the nature of public appeals. There is for example a piece that warns his fellow citizens, not to be confused at election time. His advice is simple ‘DON’T BE CONFUSED, MAKE-UP YOUR MIND, COOLLY BUT DECISIVELY; VOTE FOR POLITICAL MORALITY MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE VOTE FOR INDIA: And that is beautifully put”, Dr Kamath had concluded. The book was published in 1991.

The above reference came to mind since it was in 2014, some 23 years later Narendra Modi had given a call “BHARATH JITHAAVO”, and Pranab Mukherjee was the President of India.

Speaking to the nation, on the occasion of 65th Republic day on 25th Jan 2014, President Pranab Mukherjee had observed among other things, “2014 is a precipice moment in our history. We must rediscover that sense of national purpose and patriotism, which lifts the nation above and across the abyss and back on the road to prosperity. Give the young jobs and they will raise the villages and cities of 21st century standards. Give them chance and you will marvel at the India they can create. This chance will not come, if India does not get a stable government. A fractured government hostage to whimsical opportunists is always an unhappy eventuality. In 2014, it could be catastrophic. Each one of us is a voter. Each one of us has a deep responsibility. We cannot let India down. It is time for introspection and action.”

As luck would have it, a single party government came to power in 2014 and repeated again in 2019. Although it was an alliance of some 12 parties, BJP had the majority on its own, with 284 seats in 2014 and 303 seats in 2019, when the simple majority needed is 272 seats. Thus, a fractured government hostage to whimsical opportunists was sent on a ‘leather hunt’ by NaMo and looking to repeat in 2024.

Coming to the I.N.D.I. Alliance, it is difficult to have a common manifesto with each state having its own peculiar need and aspiration and the national ambition of regional leaders. Seat sharing can be the biggest stumbling block for I.N.D.I Alliance.

Looking back, despite multi-dimensional improvements in peoples life, due to the initiatives of NDA II – from 2014 to 2024, there are still areas needing attention and intervention. It still has major problems in education, health, unemployment and pollution. But then every government at the centre, in the past, have failed to cope with fundamental problems of education, health, pollution and jobs. ‘Yet, India has become the fastest growing major economy’ writes Swaminathan Anklesaria Aiyer in Times of India. Unfortunately the growing economy does not automatically translate into welfare improvements. It has not reduced the inequity prevailing in the society.

However, it is also true that this 2014/2024 period of 10 years has witnessed greater progress as compared to the previous 10 years of UPA government. There is no denying this truth. There are any numbers of socio-political and economic thinkers who could agree that the leadership of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister of the country, did make the country more vibrant, while admitting there are still issues which needs to be tackled for the share of the economic progress to reach all sections of our myriad society to the last man out there on the development ladder. After all we are a nation of over 1400 million population of mind boggling diversity!

Of course opposition politicians will have all the reasons to cry hoarse. But the recently held assembly elections have proved that BJP has been voted to be in power in more states than all opposition parties put together. It is however true that state election victories do not decide national election results, since it has it's own permutations and combinations.

The recent consecration of Shree Ram Temple in Ayodhya has only helped the ruling NDA led by BJP to become increasingly acceptable to the Vox Populy. It is also true that NaMo has been extremely confident or rather over confident that NDA will romp home with huge number at the 2024 General Election. His Deputy Amith Shah, the Home Minister has only added to the verbose by declaring "Loksabha poll results - a foregone conclusion". These types of ‘tongue-in-cheek’ statements will not win friends nor influence people. Commenting on the 2019 election, Prof. Valson Thampu, a former principal of St. Stephens College in New Delhi had remarked "would there be a genuine alternative to the boisterous hollowness that currently afflicts the nation?”

Fortunately for media to have gone to the market with their findings that NDA would win some 370 seats is a positive development. Generally most pollsters have predicted the victory of NDA for the 3rd term. However are these orchestrated talk about NDA winning and difficult to defeat Modi etc, is designed to see that NDA does not return back to power!?

Indeed we have to wait for the next 3 months for the election to take place and for the result to be announced. In 2004 too NDA-I was confident of winning the election and pollsters had the same story then, but suffered a shock defeat.

It is true that the atmosphere of 2004 and 2024 is not the same. There has been a fresh approach to the developmental paradigm ever since NaMo took the reigns of power at Delhi. The digital revolution through UPI has been on universal trend setter. Many developed countries found it difficult to even think in such a massive scale! Besides there have been fresh initiatives in different reach-out efforts at the common man. These have resulted in the change in the mood of the nation. Of course, the Hindu Vote bank seems to have unmistakably moved towards NDA regime led by NaMo in larger number, reflecting in figures at the hustings.

Another area where NDA II under NaMo has scored well is the foreign policy area. The personal foray of PM Modi has been very well received. His every visit abroad has been a spectacular success. Pakistan is very uncomfortable with NaMo leadership. Similarly China has taken him far more seriously than any other former Prime Minister of the country. Relationship with Arab nations have seen an unmistakable change with NaMo being welcomed with embrace. There appears to be a clear signal that India can play a more constructive role in the security of Gulf region.

Under the circumstances, the opposition Mahagathbandhan appears to be in disarray. Nithish Kumar has left the Bihar Coalition to join NDA, asserting that he will never leave NDA again. Although he has jumped the boat many times in the past, his latest move appears to be final. Besides he is a clean politician, not just by Bihar but even by national standard. He is educationally better qualified than many politicians. An engineer by qualification. He has no case against him in financial misconduct unlike his peer Lalu Prasad and his afflicted family. He has not promoted any of his family members in his political journey. His non-acceptance of Modi as the leader of NDA was his ‘beite-noire’. But little late in the day, he seems to have accepted the leadership of Modi, however disagreeable in many respects, for his own political future and that of Bihar and the nation as well. Its good for NDA. After all there are more grounds to agree than to disagree in society, as Barack Obama had famously observed.

After the Bharat Ratna to Chaudhary Charan Singh, his grandson's party RLD too has broken rank with I.N.D.I. Alliance and joined hands with NDA led by NaMo. With P.V. Narasimha Rao being awarded Bharat Ratna even TDP from Andhra seem to be planning to join hands with NDA. Thus NDA is getting stronger and stronger.

All these adds up to the promotion of NDA and therefore if the market intelligence tells about NDA wave in the coming 2024 Lok Sabha Elections, they may not be far from the truth.

Actually, when we refer to NDA often, it’s the leadership of Narendra Modi which really walks away with the credit. It has to be accepted that in to-days polity there is no one in the BJP or in the entire opposition who comes anywhere close to PM Modi in popularity stakes. Indeed whether we like it or not, in any democracy winning election is the first and foremost test of a leader.

When media or pollsters predict about the return of NDA led by NaMo, their survey generally covers public at large. But there are professionals and business community. Both these sections are affirmative in their preferences. They want the return of NDA for the stability it has offered during the last 10 years, which has managed the economy to a higher growth trajectory. Clearly they do not want ‘khichdi’ government of I.N.D.I. Alliance.

However this time round, unlike in 2019 it is interesting to note that there is no politician who has remarked disparagingly with extremely uncivil personal comments against PM Modi. Sharad Pawar had stated “Narendra Modi is a national calamity.” “Even if an NDA government under PM Modi is sworn in it won’t last more than 15/20 days.” Rahul Gandhi had remarked “Modi’s face is showing BJPs defeat” “Chawkidar Chor hai.” Priyanka Vadra had uttered “Never seen a more cowardly PM”. HD Devegowda had said “If Modi wins 2019 election and became PM again, I will give up politics.” There were many others who had flung all kinds of uncharitable remarks on PM Modi then. But having won more seats than 2014, all of them had to swallow their un-parliamentary barbs, and HD Devegowda is hankering to join hands with NDA in general and Modi in particular.

But the concern can still persist with extreme over-confidence tinged with arrogance to affect the eventual outcome! Media and pollsters are in their routine job working to find out the state of the socio-political climate. It could as well be true. But statements of arrogance that “I will address the nation on 15th August 2024 from the ramparts of Red Fort,” “My government will have 3rd term”, “Even foreign governments too think BJP will win”. These are statements of ego, whether right or wrong. These can influence the course of the apple cart.