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Will China Swallow Pakistan?!
In the history of nation states, no other country has been written about, in as much bewilderment, as the People’s Republic of China.
History informs us, before it became People’s Republic of China, that China was an imperial state ruled by the Manchu dynasty. Wars occurred in China as frequently as they did in 19th/20th century Europe. According to some historians, China enjoyed pre-eminence in days of yore. However exploitation of people was the norm. Hence there was widespread unrest among the working population of China. Slowly China was getting ripe for revolution. An army backed revolution in 1912 deposed its last ruling emperor, then only 6 years old. However, it was only on Oct 1, 1947, Mao-Tse-Tung, (Mao Zedong) could establish his People’s Republic. While proclaiming the republic, he had stated, “We have stood up. Ours will no longer be a nation subject to insult and humiliation”.
While warning his countrymen he told his people “The victory of Chinese people’s democratic revolution, viewed in retrospect, will seem like only a brief prologue to a long drama. A drama begins with a prologue, but the prologue is not the climax.”
It is another matter that Chinese listening to Mao couldn’t have foreseen what followed. In just 2 years time, China invaded South Korea and captured Seoul. In 1958, a programme to revolutionize the economy was proclaimed as ‘The Great Leap Forward”. Dubbed ‘economic lunacy’ by the west, the programme ended in famine which claimed millions of lives. Armed conflict with India in 1962 and, then followed with the Soviet Union leading to formal snapping of diplomatic links between China and USSR. Cultural Revolution launched in 1966 caused huge turmoil within the Chinese society. 1972 brought U.S President Richard Nixon, the 1st U.S president to visit mainland China. Mao passed away in 1976, bringing Deng Xiaoping as the new leader of the Communist Party of China.
He clearly had a socio/political vision for his country. Biggest strength those days for China was its manpower. In a regimented communist rule, the primacy of its ideology was paramount. Under Deng Xiaoping, growing agitation among intellectuals and educated young for a greater degree of democracy rose to haunt the Chinese leadership. Being a champion of economic change Deng opened up the economy to foreign investment and permitted Chinese farmers to sell their surplus produce in open market. This cautious freeing of the economy had aroused expectation among the educated youth and intellectuals of a possible increase in the political freedom. However Deng was resolutely opposed to any parallel political reform that could possibly undermine the autocratic power of the Chinese Communist Party. “We cannot do without dictatorship”, Deng had declared.
Thus, the political leadership was the deciding factor that kept the wages of the labour low. A huge labour force with a salary of less than $25 a week was the irresistible attraction for western investors. This opened up huge socio/economic possibilities for the nation state as well as for its citizens. Rest, as the cliché goes, is history. In thirty years journey of this Chinese capitalism which the Chinese leadership called “Socialism with Chinese characteristics”, People’s Republic of China catapulted as the second largest economy after U.S, pushing Japan to the third position. Through its relentless exports, with price advantage due to low labour cost, China has amassed a mountain of cash reserves and made itself Washington’s biggest creditor.
Tools that China has used to spark its economic miracle were government support, cheap labour and state directed finance.
Like all good things have to come to an end, so was the ever growing Chinese surplus. Growth of government revenue was slowing down, imbalance between revenue and expenditure was becoming more pronounced and reportedly there were risks and hidden dangers in local government debt. The amount of increasing non-performance loans by banks have reportedly, added to the pressing concerns. Cheap labour was no more cheap and the labour aware of the opportunity for more, is restive. This has clearly pushed foreign business to look for alternatives. It’s not just foreign but even Chinese businessmen are looking for places in Africa, like that footwear maker Zhang Huarong invested $15 million in a factory in Ethiopia. Reportedly he pays 1/8th of wages paid to Chinese counterparts, and has plans to increase his workforce to 30,000 from the present 3000. Besides, the slowdown of economic activity has led to retrenchment of 1.8 million workers in steel and coal sectors.
So, the national planners had to perforce look for avenues to keep the momentum to maintain the GDP.
China had in the meanwhile cultivated Pakistan as a buffer to stymie India in its growth endeavours, since China never wanted India to grow to compete with China. China cultivated military partnership with Pakistan. Pakistan was an Indian adversary therefore it became very easy for China to cultivate Pakistan, besides Pakistan was hungry for cash, which China was more than ready to meet for its own expansionist agenda. China is also pouring money under the guise of various types of aids and projects across the world, especially in emerging economies to buy up friends and also to expand its economic influences.
One Belt One Road (OBOR), termed tectonically transforming, was planned and pushed ahead to keep the Chinese economic juggernaut going. This Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) is expected to cover some 60 countries, all across the land locked but energy rich Central Asian Republics. Clearly China is trying to expand and establish geo-economic influence in Asia, as well as parts of Europe.
And comes this China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a part of BRI, which connects a distance of about 3000kms from China’s Kashgar in Xinjiang province to Pakistan’s South Western Gwadar Port west of Karachi with a maze of rail road and pipelines. Kashgar is in China’s Muslim majority Turkish Xinjiang region, mainly populated by ethnic Uighur Muslims and has been a home to separatists. Since this road is passing through the restive Baloochistan and not very far from Talibanis, Pakistan had to create a special security apparatus at a huge cost. CPEC is an almost $50 billion project. Besides being a huge road project, it also includes energy, infrastructure, ports and industry related projects. This project is termed a game changer for Pakistan, which is presently in both political and economic turmoil.
China has killed two birds in one go with this CPEC. It provided economic sustenance to Pakistan in the immediate future, which in turn will keep the India centric border skirmishes in Kashmir and along the Indian border, more active, to the chagrin and military occupancy of India. CPEC will also be earning long term dividends; at least it is planned thus, for China’s expansionist goals. To make matters worse, this CPEC is passing through Gilgit Baltisan area of Pakistani Occupied Kashmir. This has greatly upset India. The exciting and at times increasing Chinese belligerence on the north eastern border and the latest flash point at the India-Bhutan-China tri-junction, has kept the tension in New Delhi alive. These are all part of the Chinese strategy to contain India’s regional power ambitions. This has disturbed the economic calculations of the Indian government of the day.
While this BRI which includes CPEC is expected to bring economic manna for participating countries, for China it ensures uninterrupted supply of raw materials including hydrocarbon fuels, this will also provide huge market for its finished products and largely reduce its dependence on outside countries but more importantly to the hostile west. However what is very clear is the indifference to the governance style of both China and those receiving countries! There is no criticism of strong arm methods of quelling internal dissent, human rights violations and other ‘preachy issues’ propagated by western powers. However, as former Lt. Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Island’s Bhopinder Singh writes, “The lure of an alternative benign power, which doles out the moolah to cash starved nations without any ‘strings attached’, is a welcome alternative to the much- conditional ‘ifs and buts’ of the western powers.”
WILL IT REALLY BE SO!
China is not an easy customer. To begin with, it will show all the interest in the development of the receiving country, where it can use its surplus resources to its advantage. But in the long term, it is the ideological supremacy of the Peoples’ Republic of China, that is intended as the final frontier, where it will never hesitate to flex its muscles, both economic and military to protect its geostrategic goals.
As things are unfolding, it is becoming increasingly clear, that Pakistan can be in for an unpleasant surprise, if not shock. The all-weather friend that China is to Pakistan may no longer remain all-weather. In not too distant a future it can degenerate into a fair-weather friend only and may even become Pakistan’s lord and master, just like what England did to India and rest of the world, in its long history of colonization.
Although it is clearly a political game that China is opposing everything, from supporting Masood Azar, a terrorist, to blocking India’s bid to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to India’s Security Council aspirations, are all double edged. The issue of Masood Azar is clearly to influence Pakistani sensitivity so that Pakistan does not get the smell of Chinese long term design. However, apparently China appreciates that with large number of Chinese engineers, workers and citizens expected to be part of building infrastructure and other projects, an element of enhanced risk to their safety and safety of Chinese assets exists. Global Times, the Chinese government mouth piece on record had stated “Beijing’s huge investment in Islamabad is coveted and thus may easily fall victim to terror groups”, while acknowledging that “Pakistan is known for its poor security records”, and naming Pakistan as ‘a source from where Uighur terrorists enter China’.
While Chinese leadership is torn between the benefits from having a shorter and more convenient access to the sea that could bring rich dividends in terms of exercising hegemony on the region and the possible negative fallout from having to deal with a volatile area which is a hot bed of terror, within the emerging scenario in Pakistan, it is certainly disturbing, to say the least, to its national psyche. There is a palpable fear that Pakistan could get into unsustainable debt trap while China will reap all benefits.
However, the Chinese daily Global Times says, “The global economy needs new driving forces and economic globalization needs newer dimensions. The BRI instills the world economy with new imagination”. For sure, BRI is indeed an imaginative initiative. On the face of it, it is a win-win situation for both the giver and the receiver. But the veil of pretence ends there.
China will not lead such an initiative involving hundreds of billions of $ without its long term goals. OBOR project envisages the construction of a maze of roads, rail and port projects through a number of countries to connect mainland China to markets in Asia and Europe.
Clearly, there are indications that Pakistani society is worried. Apparently, Pakistan believes CPEC would transform its moribund economy within a short number of years. In fact Pakistan is already euphoric of the socio-economic spin off of CPEC. Of course, Pakistan’s hatred of India is rendering it blind to the possible catastrophe the Chinese economic high stake will in all probability lead to. While apparently everything is hunky dory for this ‘all-weather’ Sino-Pak bilateral friendship, details of the CPEC projects indicate existential danger to Pakistan, feels the Pak media. There are suspicions that the agreement is heavily skewed in favour of China. A look at the material and manpower need of the CPEC shows that except Pakistan-produced cement all other requirements and machinery, including men needed for the projects, were all brought in from China, with little or no participation of the local communities. Besides, since CPEC is largely located on the country’s eastern part, it is being disparagingly called the “China Punjab Economic Corridor”. Thus CPEC has also led to inter-provincial resentment.
Some of the highlights of these details are “CPEC envisages a deep broad-based penetration of most sectors of Pakistan’s economy as well as its society by Chinese enterprise and culture …
A national fibreoptic backbone will be built for the country not only for internet traffic, but also terrestrial distribution of broadcast TV, which will co-operate with Chinese Media in the dissemination of Chinese culture.” This attempt to spread Chinese language and culture has left Pakistani intelligentsia wondering ‘how it can affect lives of ordinary Pakistanis’.
In agriculture CPEC “identifies opportunities for the entry by Chinese enterprises in the myriad dysfunctions that afflict Pakistan’s agricultural sector”.
“CPEC plans to import advanced planting and breeding techniques to farmers by acquiring land by the government, which in turn will rent these acquired land holdings to Chinese enterprises for building planting and breeding bases”. This means most of Pakistani farm land will go under Chinese control. This is going to cause enormous socio/economic unrest among small land holders, who have inherited land rights for decades or even centuries.
Report also says that these Chinese companies would be advised to “respect the religions and customs of locals, treat people as equals and live in harmony”. This is in direct contrast to what China does to its own Muslims in Xinjiang province. Time and again, Chinese authorities have ruthlessly cracked down on the religious rights of Muslims in the country. Unveiling new education rules, the state authorities have made it clear that parents encouraging their children into religious activities would be jailed. For the past two years, China has banned fasting for Muslims in Xinjiang during the holy month of Ramadan. This alone has to send alarm bells in Islamabad. But strangely Pakistan has failed to raise any question about the ruthless oppression against Muslims in China.
Report also talks about how Chinese enterprises have to be protected from terror attacks, while remaining quiet on terror attacks by Masood Azar & company on India and Indians. Of course the recent kidnapping and killing of two Chinese language teachers, a man and a woman, from Quetta allegedly by Islamic State (IS) is certainly giving authorities in Beijing sleepless nights. Here it is very pertinent to mention that to ensure greater security to Chinese workers, some 10,000 of them and CPEC assets, Pakistan has created a Special Security Division (SSD) commanded by a Major General which was initially costing Pakistani exchequer US$12 million per year. Now that Gwadar port is operational, Pakistan has decided, as per the terms of the agreement, to deploy two marine battalions to provide round the clock security at Gwadar. This heavy emphasis on security of Chinese men and materials is expected to be a huge drain on Pakistan’s already stretched financial resources. It is reliably understood, that China has refused to share any of the security cost incurred by Pak on CPEC. This has forced the government in Islamabad to charge 1% levy on all national electric power consumers. This move by the government has greatly upset Pakistani politicians and the people in general.
The CPEC document appears to be silent on how Pakistanis and Pakistani enterprises shall benefit from the deal in the long term, except that there will be windfall to all sections of Pakistani society when infrastructure and business is developed on unprecedented scale, for both the country and its people. However it is interesting to note what S. Akbar Zaidi a Pakistani Political Economist had reportedly stated: ‘Islamabad will become a colony of China once the CPEC is ready! According to him “CPEC will enslave Pakistan and will undermine its sovereignty” while adding that “Pakistan should be alert to the debt risks brought by Chinese investment since such investments in Sri Lanka, Tajikistan and some parts of Africa have turned sour”.
Of course at this stage it is difficult to fathom how the entire CPEC project will shape ultimately. However, the scope and sweep of the project do send alarm bells to all thinking Pakistanis. Opposition in the form of kidnapping of two Chinese and found later dead has caused the Chinese the inevitable headache. How coming days shall develop has to be seen for a firmer view to appear. However, as of now, it does not look very happy for Pakistanis for their comfort. If Pakistan does not make a clear choice of priority to live in peace and dignity the million dollar (or Chinese Yuan) question is: will China swallow Pakistan?
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