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India @70 Modinomics & Muddled Priorities

“Men may come and men may go, but I go on forever.” wrote Tennyson in his poem ‘The Brook’. Indeed for many Indians, it’s the same story- Independence day may come and Independence day may go, but for millions of Indians the joy of Independence Day celebration was clearly missing, the unremitting uncertainties of life goes on, as if interminably. As usual Prime Ministers have come to the historic Red Fort, unfurled the national flag, made speech, followed by army & air-force drill and displays of tabloid etc to tell the world, ‘we are militarily strong and multi cultures across India is thriving.’ And crowd goes home, happy at the visuals. This year was no different.

71st Independence Day of India came and gone into the national amnesia as just another day. Prime Minister Modi, in his 4th Independence Day speech didn’t add much lustre to buck up the national spirit, which was already damp with the news of some 60 deaths in a U.P government hospital, havoc by the flood in Assam, Bihar, Gujarat and West Bengal and other myriad issues bedeviling the citizenry and the nation. 

Of course he spoke of “New India, a great India, a majestic India by 2022”. “In order to build a prosperous India, we need a strong economy, balanced development and next generation infrastructure. Only then, we can realize the India of our dreams” he said among other things.

There is no leader, no citizen anywhere in the world, who does not want to see his country fully developed, “where all have pucca house with electricity and water.”

Winding up his hour long speech, PM Modi exhorted Indians “Let all of us march together with dream of building an India of grandeur and majesty as we want for the 75th year of independence after completing 70 years of independence in the next 5 years.”

It’s all very well to dream and dream big. In fact it is very good to dream. Only dreams galvanize a person to perform. But then in the context of a nation, especially a country like India, there are many ‘slips between cups and lips.’

In 2014, 15th Aug. PM Modi gave a clarion call for ‘SWATCH BHARATH ABHIYAN' (SBA). He succeeded in bringing the issue of cleanliness and hygiene into the national consciousness as never before. Three years have passed; kind of mind set our people have, apathetic bureaucracy and politicians without commitment, SBA has not been a spectacular success, as it was expected.

And comes this story, as late as 20th Aug 2017 “Time running out for Swatch Bharath” by no less a person than Vinod Rai, the former CAG of India. Recounting his train journey between Delhi & Dhanbad he writes, ‘scene of early morning shitting on tracks is still continuing despite our massive programme of construction of toilets and the ‘really huge’ (emphasis Rai) dumps of garbage along the railway track just outside the towns.’ And PM Narendra Modi wants to see Majestic India by 2022!

Despite stringent penal provisions against manual scavenging, it has continued in several parts of the country including metros where workmen -mostly dalits- have died inside the sewer manholes with no safety gadgets.

Sometime in early June 2017, NHRC issued notice to Centre and to U.P government over the plight of 30 women manual scavengers in Meerut as “worst examples of violation of right to life”, when “excreta slips from the basket on their hair and shoulder during rainy season”. That’s rather very stark. According to Prof. Anand Teltumbde, a grandson of Dr. Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar, "there are an estimated 800,000 people, mainly women, who are engaged in cleaning dry latrines using the most primitive methods." This is mind boggling.

Reportedly manual scavenging persists mainly because of the continued presence of unsanitary latrines- 2.6 million of them- which require cleaning by hand. State governments have not demolished these latrines despite there being a law in place to this effect. Central government is supposed to rehabilitate these scavengers under self employment schemes. But 2017-18 Union budget reduced allocation from the earlier `448 crores to `5 crores, which is rather clearly incongruous. Shouldn’t this come under Swatch Bharat Abhiyan, to which public is contributing a cess?!

Atrocities on SC/ST and Dalits have been going on without much interruption, despite rhetoric to the contrary. A print media editorial of 12th May 2017 said “Appalling conviction rate in SC/ST atrocities cases”. Aren’t the happenings last year, the attacks on dalits, in different of the country including Gujarat, fresh in our national memory?!

Human Development Index (HDI), recorded by UNDP, for India, is hovering around 130 for many years, among the 188 countries, among the low HDI group, but crony wealth in India is 3.4% of GDP! Crony capitalists are those who earn their riches to their proximity to the government. Isn’t it a reflection of our unstated policy of crying with the poor but siding with the rich!?

NITI Ayog chairman Arvind Panagariya before resigning had reportedly stated that “India’s GDP could rise to $8 trillion in 15 years, -from the less than $3 trillion at present- if the country registers a growth of 8% annually and come very close to eliminating abject poverty entirely.” As an economist surely Panagaria is fully aware, there is nothing as an automatic trickledown effect in the nation’s economic growth where rich continues to become richer and poor becomes poorer or stagnate at best.

‘By 2022, we will have a Majestic India!’ PM Modi had declared at Red Fort. But how it could be possible when 1/3 of class 8 students cannot read class 2 level text? And more than 50%, who completed 8th standard can’t read a simple English sentence or do simple division! We are talking of demographic dividend, when we are sitting on an unproductive/unemployable population explosion. We do not have a population policy, which can truly help in socio-economic planning. The so-called demographic dividend has not been utilized by India where jobs have been difficult to come by. Close to a million join the labour force every month, when the economy could provide some 100,000 jobs for the whole of 2015 as against the promise of creating 2 crore jobs every year. To fill the yawning gap came, Skill India, Make in India, Digital India and Mudra initiatives. No-doubt they were fresh but untested initiatives. There has been some progress. But to provide millions of job seekers to be employed in short run is simply impossible. China was wise enough to go for 1 child norm for 30 years and it helped cut the ballooning numbers by some 400 million, and improve the standard of living of their teeming millions greatly, with increased wages. Yes India is a democracy hence cannot force like China, but it’s possible to have a population policy of positive discrimination to encourage small family. This will have a multiplier effect. Compounding the complexity is the National Health Survey-4, -‘Indicators for Malnutrition in kids worsening- print media 03/08/2017’- which reportedly gives an extremely disappointing picture despite government schemes introduced to tackle malnutrition in kids. Reportedly, it’s pretty bad in Thane- Kalyan belt in Maharashtra and Fadnavis government is busy pushing for Bullet Train! Isn’t it a case of ‘barking up the wrong tree’! 

According to another report, NHRC has issued notice to Maharashtra government over the death of 740 students in residential schools located in tribal areas of Thane-Kalyan belt in the last 10 years, due to lack of basic health services and amenities. This is despite the oft repeated rhetoric on creating an inclusive society.

Newborns in India have a lesser chance of survival than babies born in Afghanistan and Somalia, according to the latest Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study published in the medical journalThe Lancet.

In the GBD rankings for Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ), India has fallen 11 places, and now ranks 154, from the last year’s 143 out of 195 countries. Further, India’s healthcare index of 44.8 is the lowest among the sub-continental countries, as Sri Lanka (72.8), Bangladesh (51.7), Bhutan (52.7), and Nepal (50.8) all fared better. 

India’s downward slide in the rankings indicates that it has failed to achieve health care targets, especially those concerning neonatal disorders, maternal health, tuberculosis, and rheumatic heart disease. Last year, India was ranked 143 among 188 countries.

In the case of neonatal mortality, on a scale of 1 to 100, India scored 14 in the HAQ index, while Afghanistan scored 19/100 and Somalia, 21/100. Access to tuberculosis treatment in India was scored 26 out of 100, lower than Pakistan (29), Congo (30) and Djibouti (29). For diabetes, chronic kidney diseases, and congenital heart diseases, India scored 38, 20, and 45, respectively.

 “What we have found about health care access and quality is disturbing,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, senior author of the study. While adding “Having a strong economy does not guarantee good health care. Having great medical technology doesn’t either."

PM Modi wants women to take centre stage in economic and social activities in our march towards Super Power. Beti Bachao- Beti Padao slogan was advertised as a game changer. But India falls abysmally short in female literacy. Nepal clocked 92% as against India’s 48%.

Despite spirited statements and cogent arguments women’s lot has not greatly improved. “Rise in crime against women alarming” said an editorial of an English daily as late as 10th Aug 2017.

Agenda about “100 smart cities” too appears to be in too much hurry with too little planning. Wanting to replicate our cities on the lines of Singapore has a long history. Singapore is not India. We do not have a Lee Kuan Yew, the true architect of Singapore as Prime Minister for 31 years. Unlike Singapore, India is a messy democracy with vast majority of Indians being largely indisciplined with scarce regards for public dos and don’ts or respect for law & order.

According to a journalist, 'the real problem with smart cities in India are, traffic is hellish, public transport is rudimentary, public infrastructure is ramshackle, there doesn’t appear to be any civic planning to speak of, roads peter off into dirt tracks in new colonies; there are mounds of garbage everywhere, power and water shortage is ever present, law & order machinery leaves much to be desired.' But this is only a part picture. There are other dimensions too needing careful consideration, like management of emergencies, assistance in times of need, safety and security of women etc. 

According to the Annual Report on Global Wealth by Credit Suisse, India is one of the most unequal countries in the world where the richest 1% own 60% of its wealth, far ahead of US, where 1% own 37% of its wealth. The report also informs that 30% at the bottom do not have any wealth, while stating that 90% of Indians own only 10% of the country’s wealth. This is inequity at its worst. And what is the Modi government trying to do to address this bottomless scourge!? Correcting this will require leadership that is politically willing to take some bold steps in spending for the poor, investing more in health and education, offering social protection to the weak. That is the only way good economies can bring fruits of growth to all.

Shiksan Sevaks-754 of them- appointed in 2015 on a salary of Rs. 6000/- p.m, has not been made permanent even after 3 years at the same salary. No wonder they have no motivation to work harder. How can you expect our children to do better in schools, if we do not look after teachers fairly? May be teachers are no good, but the treatment of teachers by the government is no better! For years there have been initiatives by Wipro group chairman Azim Premji on improving the quality of teachers in government schools. Has the central government led by PM Modi taken him on board on issues of education? Instead there is a feverish pushing for bullet trains, by talking about “next generation infrastructure”. The question is, for whom is this next generation infrastructure needed! Azim Premji is a visionary corporate leader who gave away his 50% wealth for social cause. He was a fit person to be India’s 14th President, instead electoral compulsions brought RamNath Govind (Kovind).

Coming to Bullet Train, a High Speed Rail (HSR) or is it ‘next generation infrastructure!’ is certainly not a priority for India. They are hugely capital intensive projects. The Mumbai-Ahmadabad bullet train corridor, just 500kms is going to cater to a miniscule Guajarati crowd at a possible cost of some Rs. 80,000/- crores, when all India railways track length is in the region of 80,000kms. Can a country like India afford this elite experiment for only the haves of the society!

Demonetization came probably with good intentions. But it did slow down the economic growth, as millions of petty traders suffered and  their workers were left unpaid. Hence spending and circulation of money too suffered which has affected the growth indices. To some miniscule extent anti-national/anti-social activities like, Separatists in Kashmir, Maoists internally, black money generators etc have suffered. But Prime Minister should not mislead the gullible public by claiming that Rs. 3 lakh crore unaccounted money has come into the banking system due to demonetization. While it is true that, some such money has indeed come back to the formal system, RBI is still not ready with its conclusive figures and hence Rs. 3 lakh looks clearly a bogie.

The recent Economic Survey by Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subrahmanian, presented to the parliament reportedly noted that “A number of indicators point to the deceleration of real activity since the first quarter of 2016-17 and a further deceleration since the third quarter”. So how are we going to realize our 2022 dream?

Mercifully, oil prices are half of what it was in 2014. Monsoon has not been bad. It could have been pretty bad for a poor country wanting to be a Super Power, if reverse was the case.

Yes, GST has come as One Nation One Tax. But 6 tax rates have made it look complicated. Of course, it’s still new, only coming months will tell the whole story, while it is true that truck drivers are having easier time without octroi check-naakas, which in turn will save fuel, time etc. But protest in Surat textile market has another story to tell, yet PM goes to town to tell how ordinary Indians are happy with GST. From where does he gets his feedback & update! Only God knows!

Actually, what the central government should have done on priority basis is tackling ballooning Non Performing Assets (NPA) of public sector banks. Allowing, Vijay Mallya to flee certainly was bad for the country, when small borrowers are publicly humiliated by banks for non-payment and banks employ all kinds of tricks to force them pay.  And look at the unrelenting agrarian crisis, where farmers are committing suicides to escape the debt trap of a lakh of rupees or less. Right now the NPA figure is close to over Rs. 8 lakh crores. All of it is not business losses. Good part of money borrowed has gone to the wayward living style of high-end borrowers, who have even siphoned off borrowed business finance into personal and family a/cs. And this story is not from yesterday, it happened for all these 7 decades under different political dispensations. So what has really changed for millions of ordinary Indians, for whom Independence days have come and gone like any other day!