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CATHARSIS IN GUJARAT: IS THERE LESSON TO BE LEARNT ! 
So the dream of BJP and its top most leader Narendra Modi and his handpicked party president Amith Shah, to have a Congress Mukth Bharath, stands shattered. After 22 years of uninterrupted rule by the BJP in Gandhinagar, Congress party had tried hard to unseat the incumbent BJP, in the election that returned once again the rule of BJP, however badly mauled.
In the event, for the first time, after 22 years of being in comfortable majority, BJP was reduced to below 100 seats at 99 from the earlier number of 116. Indeed as the wag said “Gujaraatiyone Congress ko haraa diya, lekin BJP ko daraadiya”. Very aptly put, the discomfiture of BJP leadership of the possible run in. It was truly a close call, just 8 seats from the half way mark of 91. And it could have gone either way, with 3 seats of Godhra (236) Dholka (327) and Botad (906) which were won with less than 1000 votes difference and another 5 seats were won with less than 2000 votes. Thus as a political analyst puts it, “its time for the BJP and its top leadership to close the door and do serious introspection to find out what went wrong apart from the usual excuse of anti-incumbency factors”. This indeed is needed for the future of BJP, both in Gujarat and Pan- India, especially when Amith Shah was confident of 150 seats in this Gujarat election. This election in Gujarat has also proved that Congress, which was reduced to not merely to two digits in the last Loksabha election, to less than 50 seats, made a convincing comeback with 78 seats which was some 20seats more than their seats held in the last assembly. This is clearly an indication of resurgent Congress, with its new president Rahul Gandhi. And BJP under Narendra Modi and Amith Shah had harped for a Congress Mukth Bharath. Now for sure they have to have a newer and better slogan to target Congress, since Congress has clearly comeback in style.
Looking back at the events leading to the humiliation of being less than 100seats in Gujarat assembly, the BJP leadership of Modi-Shah duo has to dump this slogan “Congress Mukth Bharath” forever. This slogan is not merely bad in taste against a political opponent, it shows the arrogance of perceived power of a victorious side. After all, if nothing, Congress has a history of over 100 years and had its significant role in the making of India during both pre and post independence period.
Looking back over the past few months before the election to the Gujarat assembly there are some interesting points to be noted for the information of posterity, if nothing else.
All Indians, privy to the Gujarat election, are in the know of Amith Shah’s announcement as he launched the election campaign in Gandhinagar. He had declared that BJP in Gujarat will get 150 seats of the 182 strength in the assembly, although even at the height of Narendra Modi’s popularity he could never go beyond 130 seats. Shah had also asserted that ‘even if BJP gets one seat less of this figure, i.e., 149, there will be no victory celebrations.’ But all are aware that BJP won the day with greatly reduced margin at 99, a far cry from the 150 and they did celebrate as a victory of Modi led development agenda. So why this figure of 150?! Modi, as the Chief Minister of Gujarat won the election for BJP three times, the highest for any Chief Minister of Gujarat. But he could never manage to be the winner of highest number of seats in the Gujarat assembly.  That record is still unbroken at 149 seats with former Congress Chief Minister Madhav Sinh Solanki. And Amith Shah, a trusted lieutenant of Narendra Modi, wanted this time round, to surpass that figure at 149+1=150. It is another matter that all his calculation went horribly wrong in returning his party to power, missing even the 3 digit of 100, by a whisker.
Close on the close call in Gujarat comes the news from neighbouring Rajasthan, another BJP ruled state. Not a happy news, that BJP lost all 3 bypolls -2 Loksabha and 1 Vidhan Sabha- in Rajasthan, which went to polls only few weeks after Gujarat results. All of them were won by BJP earlier with huge margins, this time it was comprehensively reversed.  Alwar seat was won with over 2.8 lakh votes and BJP lost it this time with a margin of 1.96 lakh votes, that is a staggering 4.76 lakhs reversal. And come to think of it, all three seats (2 Loksabha & 1 Assembly) were won by the same Congress party from which BJP wanted Mukthi, under its new state party chief Sachin Pilot. The other seat in Ajmer was won by BJP in 2014 with 1.74 lakh votes and this time round it lost by a margin of 84000 votes, that is a reversal of over 2.5 lakh votes. Mind you BJP had won all 25 Loksabha seats in the 2014 election. Clearly something is working against the party in power both at centre and states of Rajasthan and Gujarat.
Of course we are all aware about the notorious incident of lynching in Alwar of a Muslim, a dairy farmer by vagabondish goons calling themselves Gau rakshaks. Pehlu Khan, the dairy farmer, was carrying two milch cows from the Jaipur cattle market. On his way back to his village in Haryana, he was attacked by a group of goons, ostensibly cow vigilantes. He was so badly beaten, he succumbed to his injuries in a hospital in Alwar, after two days. Six persons, who were named by the victim were all cleared by the police after some months, stating ‘there were no corroborative evidence’. It was very clearly a political action in condoning the atrocity of a group of Hindu goons against a poor Muslim. It happened in broad day light in the presence of his two sons with many people around the place this lynching took place and the victim died. Doesn’t the dying declaration of the victim become good enough to fix the guilt of the perpetrators of the crime?! And the top leadership both in government and the party did precious little to assuage the feelings of the family of the victim. Authorities were clearly not fair & honest, that it was a law and order situation and therefore those who caused the mayhem could have been made accountable for their crime. In the event sectarian considerations scored over justice and fairness. Public memory is not always short. This time round they have remembered to speak, and speak loud and clear, through the ballot box. Here, its not just aggrieved Muslims who voted against BJP, but others too, since votes won by Congress was 57% when Muslims were only 22%. This is clearly alarming for BJP especially in a state ruled by BJP.
Could it be that Alwar was a test case! Of course BJP cannot forget the loss of Gurdaspur Loksabha seat held by its candidate film personality Vinod Khanna for over 15 years, in the election held in the recent past after the demise of Vinod Khanna.
But why has Gujarat gone the way it has gone!?   The last assembly election in Gujarat has indicated the possibility that BJP can be defeated in Gujarat. Indeed the result of less than 100 seats in Gujarat is staring at Narendra Modi as the top most leader of BJP.
Writing in the print media, G N Devy, an academician and social activist from Gujarat tells about voters’ critical consciousness. “Election after election, Indian voters have proved the pollsters wrong because voters are seen as mere numbers or groups. No party is trained to look at voters as a vast number of individual thinkers who form a wide spectrum of ‘critical consciousness” he wrote.
According to him, unlike voters elsewhere, Gujarat society has developed ‘critical consciousness’ that is unique and has an extremely nuanced grasp of the future. Their antenna are sharper and their thinking far less parochial than Tamil Nadu or Bengal. It is a state with people who constantly keep looking at the future and shape it. Their decision to provide greater space to the Congress and rein in the fascistic regime of BJP is a clear signal for the 2019 elections. “People in India are asking the political parties to mend their way. Gujarat has made a clear and calibrated statement of that message- a writing on the wall that the parties, pundits and pollsters need to decipher” he added in conclusion.
How valid are the observation of G N Devy ! Looking back over the journey of BJP in Gujarat election, it had won 127 seats, the highest in its history, in 2002. The figure went down to 124 in 2007 to 116 in 2012 and now in 2017 to two digit, at 99. 
So the slide in Gujarat had started pretty early. Has BJP and its top leader Narendra Modi failed to see it coming!?
Clearly, it was the overconfidence that factors ranged against Modi and development rhetorics could be handled without much pressure. But that was not to be, as was proved so emphatically. A resurgent Rahul Gandhi, Hardik Patel factor, Jignesh Mevani, the Dalit leader and Alpesh Thakor, the OBC leader were determind to make the impact. And the impact, they certainly did.
But on what issues these four- Rahul, Hardik, Jignesh & Alpesh- were really focusing on, that in the end, they have all scored so very well and made a serious dent on the impregnability of NAMO factor?
Ever since the Demonetization in 2016 and the G.S.T that followed six months later on 1st July 2017, Congress like, most opposition parties had a ready stick to beat the Modi government in the centre. But, the issues that cropped up in the aftermath of Demonetization and GST were relevant all over India and hence were easily applied to situations in states, including Gujarat. Rahul Gandhi exploited the bitterness of these major financial measures of Modi government. Surat the epicenter of anti-GST campaign and the sufferings due to demonetization which led to the Patel agitation was targeted by Congress for concerted attack. Although, Surat returned BJP, 15 of 16 seats, it reverberated in the rural Gujarat, which gave Congress 71 seats against 53 of BJP. Reportedly, BJPs vote share came down to 49% from 60% and that of Congress it went up to 41.5% from 33.5%.
According to a journalist, “The trading community was extremely upset with demonetization and GST. The Patidars were up in arms, demanding reservation. The Dalit and OBCs were unhappy. Youth were disenchanted with growing unemployment. Congress ran a campaign on these issues”. Yes, Rahul Gandhi had challenged Modi in Gujarat, his bastion, thus created a perception that Modi could be challenged anywhere. No wonder he demanded “Why PM Modi is mum on, Amith Shah’s son Jay Shah who turned a mere Rs. 50000/- company into Rs.80 crore company in just 3 months?”  It’s a good question but public space has no answer from PM Modi:
It is very true that demonetization had its considered objectives. It did help in the promotion of those objectives to some extent. But the suffering of a section of our society was also real. While the opposition political parties have exploited the people suffering to their advantage, the central government led by BJP did not bother to sympathise with those who suffered instead indulged in verbose in praise of demonetization. And GST came almost at the back of the demonetization suffering, within 6 months. What was the tearing hurry for the introduction of GST? It could have waited for another six months. In the event, we are all privy to the mess GST has created for all and sundry. Widespread discontent among farmers, textile workers as well as small and medium enterprises because of the problems connected with the implementation of GST since July 1st 2017 had remained unabating.
After all policies are made and executed for the benefit of people, certainly not to inconvenience them. But a good section of Indians felt ignored by the perceived insensitivity of economic managers of the country. Was the election result a reflection of this churning within the electorate?!
The Smart Alec move to delay the election in Gujarat, while announcing the dates for Himachal Pradesh election by the Election Commission, led to a completely avoidable controversy for the opposition to cry hoarse, because of the Model Code of Conduct which comes into effect after the election schedule is announced. At least two former Chief Election commissioners have expressed their consternation at the misuse of power by the centre.
The mantra of BJP led NDA has been “Sabka saath Sabka Vikas”. But it has been proved hollow when it mattered to Muslims, despite ‘Sadbhaavana Mission’. BJP did not give any seat to Muslims in Gujarat. But Congress gave 6 seats and 3 of them have won. No wonder, a seat held by BJP for 42 years fell to Congress candidate Imran Khedawala.
Temple visits by Rahul Gandhi was purely an election gimmick, but unlike his mother, he is more open to such overtures and that has endeared at least to some sections to make them vote for Congress. But BJP leadership steadfastly refused to pay visit to Masjids. No wonder opposition has ridiculed PM Modi visiting Masjids in UAE and other Arab countries but not in India. Isn’t it relevant?!
Coming to another factor that influenced the course of Gujarat election was the UNA incident of Dalits being thrashed. Visuals of four dalit youth in Una, Gujarat, made to stand in a line and beaten with sticks and rods for skinning a dead cow, shall remain haunting till memory can last on the national consciousness. It cannot be denied that Dalits being at the receiving end of acts of brutality from elements within BJP and its allies, ever since BJP came to power at centre. No doubt this Dalit bashing became a readymade issue to Jignesh Mevani. He won the election to the Gujarat assembly as an independent supported by Congress. He sure had a very serious issue and electorate took him seriously, so was the Congress Party. He will be the true face of Dalit in Gujarat assembly, somebody Dalit can trust as one of their very own.
Another very important issue was the impromptu action by Rahul Gandhi, as the newly appointed Congress President to suspend a very senior and important leader like Mani Shankar Iyer for his disgraceful remark of ‘neech aadmi’. What you need to appreciate and possibly feel inspired to act as well is the speed with which Rahul Gandhi acted on the erring party senior. How many motor mouths are there in Sangh Parivaar or BJP, and how many times you have acted decisively!? Your actions have been few and far between and usually seen as without conviction. Even when you spoke on Dadri lynching, it was so weak that there has been no let up in the violence, both verbal and physical, on minorities and dalits during months that followed. If anything, it has only been increasing. Clearly this is one area of concern where BJP has to think deeply and come up with a fair and just approach towards all and sundry.
Thus, it is very clear that, if BJP wants to repeat the 2014 success, it has to perforce revisit its performance, its approach and an enlightened sense of fairness and justice in everything that is decided and executed in the public space. If you think that the country is bigger than the party then, it is so much easier for you to travel the distance. Voters are no more what they used to be. In the digital connected world they are better informed and are aware what they need. Slowly and steadily voters will decide what is good for the country in terms of the team needed to lead the nation. They thought you were a better bet in 2014. We are in 2018. Only an year and a few months are there before the country goes for Loksabha election.
You have the benefit of history, how different governments came, ruled and why they lost at the hustings. Those who forget the history will have their bitter lessons, why history should be remembered.
It is true BJP need one more term in New Delhi to deliver. But the expectation of the voter has undergone massive change. It is for political stake holders to take the call. Who is ready? Only the aam aadmi will know and respond.   
         
J. Shriyan

 
   
                                         

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