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MAY 2019: WHAT ARE THE EMERGING ALTERNATIVES OR IS IT TINA? NARENDRA MODI ONLY
Many years ago in Delhi’s LUTYENS', there was this talk making its round. “When Nehru was made the Prime Minister, it was said, in India an ELITE CAN BECOME A PRIME MINISTER. When Shastri was made the Prime Minister, Oh! In India, EVEN A POOR MAN CAN BECOME A PRIME MINISTER was the riposte. When Indira Gandhi was made the P M, Oh! EVEN A WOMAN CAN BECOME THE P M in India was the reaction. When Atal Bihari Vajpayee was made the P M, Oh! A POET TOO CAN BECOME THE P M in India was the remark. When I.K Gujral was made the PM, Oh! AN INTELLECTUAL too CAN BECOME A P.M in India was the response. But when H.D Deve Gowda was made the Prime Minister, Oh! In India ANY BODY CAN BECOME THE PRIME MINISTER was the exclamation.
So, no wonder come 2019, there is a whole lot of them aspiring to be the Prime Minister of India. And why not? India is a free and democratic country; everyone has the right to let one’s ambition run riot.
Jyotiraditya Scindia, a Congress functionary has gone on record to say ‘300%’, when asked if Rahul Gandhi would be the PM of India. “No stopping Rahul Gandhi from becoming PM” said Mallikarjun Kharge, Meira Kumar and Siddaramaiah, the Backward Class Brigade, at the recently held 84th Congress plenary at the Indira Gandhi stadium. Yes, he is the president of the oldest political party of India, the Indian National Congress, or is it Indira National Congress! Does it matter, his basic qualification is, he is the great grandson of India’s first Prime Minister, Grandson of India’s first lady Prime Minister, and of course, he is the son of India’s 7th Prime Minister. That’s a very loaded qualification itself, from great grandfather to great grandson! Then you have Mulayam Singh Yadav having visions of becoming India’s defacto Chief Executive, a socialist by belief but capitalist by practice. His party Samajwadi Party is family owned and dynastic driven. Was Chief Minister of UP. Going east, you have Mamata Banerjee. A mercurial, personally non-corrupt, spinster, hence no family interest, capable administrator, but divisive in approach and reportedly grooming her nephew to take over TMC, presently the CM of West Bengal & heads Trinamool Congress (TMC). Coming to the West, you have a schemy politician in Sharad Pawar, waiting in the wings to realize his long held dream of being the PM of India. Master of manipulative politics, he managed to remain untouched despite numerous scandals surrounding him, including his contacts with fugitive criminal Dawood Ibrahim Kaskar. Has been Chief Minister of Maharashtra and was senior minister in different governments of Congress at the centre. He heads Nationalist Congress Party, where he is grooming his daughter to take over the reins of power or his nephew Ajith Pawar, a former Deputy CM of Maharashtra. He already resigned his Loksabha seat in favour of his daughter and is now a Rajya Sabha member. This was his idea of empowering women, so what if it is his own daughter to begin with!
Latest among the dreamers of this high profile office of the Prime Minister of India is the Telengana Rashtra Samithi president K. Chandrashekar Rao, who is also the Chief Minister of the newest state of India, Telengana. He too is a bit of dynastic oriented, having filled up his family members, where ever he could, in the government echelons.
So clearly, there are enough and more competitors against Narendra Modi, the incumbent Prime Minister of India, whose term shall be over in May 2019. But, how formidable is the challenge in the ensuing battle royale to Narendra Modi in the next LokSabha Election?
It is true that despite the concerted and repeated campaigns about Congress Mukth Bhaarath, BJP leadership led by Narendra Modi has not succeeded in making Bhaarath Congress Mukth. It is true that in many places Congress has lost power to BJP and its allies, but somehow managed to win seats good enough to remain relevant. No doubt, despite being the biggest opposition party in the parliament with highest number of seats, Congress was not good enough to be designated Leader of Opposition, due to numerical weakness. That was the most humiliating dimension of the nation’s oldest political party. Of course, all attempts are afoot to strengthen the party under its new president Rahul Gandhi. Indeed Rahul Gandhi personally could be a good man. He lacks dynamism. He does not inspire confidence of a leader cut out to be the Prime Minister of world’s largest democracy. “When he returned to India after 12 years abroad he brought very little to the table. He had no particular accomplishment or professional success of which to talk, but enjoyed a jet setting life style and had a Venezuelan girl friend on his arm. His performance as a member of parliament was unspectacular” writes Bhavdeep Kang, a Mumbai based senior journalist. Vidya Subramanian of THE HINDU even called him an ‘ad hoc’ leader. But it’s only the number of seats the parties win in the 2019 Loksabha election that will decide the PM candidate, doesn’t matter the capability. After all we have the case of HD Deve Gowda’s example to inspire anybody to be the PM of India.
Journalist Pushpesh Pant writes, ‘from Mamata to Maya, to Akhilesh to Navin Babu there are many contenders who believe they can forge and lead a united front of opposition parties but none has so far succeeded in establishing any credibility. Scams and scandals from Vyapam to banking frauds have so far failed to tarnish the PM’s image. But will this be enough to emerge victorious in the electoral battle? According to him, TINA factor remains strong in favour of Narendra Modi.
But the Shiv Sena has declared it will go alone without BJP, in the next Loksabha election. Telugu Desam Party has withdrawn its ministers and has left the alliance. SAD in Punjab & PDP in J&K is more a pain in the neck, than allies. Losses in Rajasthan, UP, M.P have only added to the unease. Liabilities like Naresh Agarwal from SP will only add to the problems. With the Karnataka Assembly throwing up fractured mandate, situation continues to be dicey. Although BJP failed to form the government with their 104 seats, the combination of Congress and Janata Dal (S) has not given any guarantee that it will not collapse under its own contradictions. But Rahul Gandhi is euphoric. “We will defeat BJP together with other opposition parties in the 2019 national polls”, he has reportedly remarked after the desperate alliance with JD(S). Of course there is history to prove the point. In 2015, BJP lost rather badly in Bihar against a united opposition of Congress, JD (U) and RJD. And RJD despite being the most corrupt and incompetent was voted the most seats, the single largest party. Hence NAMOs anti-corruption tirade may not work in Bihar. Of course, in a later development, BJP is back in power in Bihar after JD (U) left the Mahagathbandhan due to continuous allegations and stories of corruption involving RJD family of Lalu Prasad Yadav, who is currently in jail due to the infamous Chaara Ghotala.
The unity between SP and BSP has caused the loss of Gokakhpur and Phulpur Loksabha seats to BJP. The same combination if joined by Congress can be more favorable for the opposition in U.P.
But state election victories do not decide national election results. It has its own permutations and combinations. Besides a coalition of all regional parties will have a problem of common manifesto with each state having its own needs and aspirations, besides the national ambition of its leaders. This may be a stumbling block to resolve. Also the only goal of this coalition is the one point programme of ousting Narendra Modi. 
However, despite all these names making its round, it’s only the Congress, which is a national party and hence can claim prime ministership. All others, whether Mulayam Singh Yadav, Naveen Patnaik, Mamata Banerjee, K Chandrashekar Rao or even Sharad Pawar, they all have only regional presence. But all of them put together may win more seats than Congress, and Sharad Pawar being a machinist may get all of them to back him against Congress nominee Rahul Gandhi, for the coveted post.
Thus situation can be difficult to predict. But then there is the regional aspiration of each party, which too can come in the way of stitching a Mahaghatbandan on all India basis, which in turn can help the BJP, the other national party. But TDP is extremely bitter with its own sense of perceived let down by the central government ruled by BJP. Then you have this Lokniti-CSDS opinion poll indicated that overall satisfaction with government had declined from 64% in May 2017 to 51% in January 2018.
However, according to Valson Thampu, a former principal of St. Stephen's College New Delhi, “The recent by-poll results do not; in anyway, undercut Narendra Modi’s centrality to the political dynamics of this country”. According to him “Modi rules mainly by opposing the opposition parties. This dilutes and deflects the liability of anti-incumbency. This puts the spotlight on the need to find a counter balancing point of coherence for the opposition. What the people of India is looking for is not just a rag-tag coalition of anemic aspirants, who are merely thrashing about for survival. What is needed is a genuine alternative to the boisterous hollowness that currently afflicts the nation.”
But are these opposition leaders capable of taking on Modi with one goal of better India or are they interested only in their political survival?
In 2014, Narendra Modi had come with the freshness of approach with imagination running riot, including promising 15 lakhs in each a/c, two crore jobs a year, and Acche Din. We Indians like grand presentation of dramatics. We are all aware how Ramayana and Mahaabharatha TV serials on Sunday have stopped traffic on the road.
A good section of Indians lapped up every sentence that Modi delivered to the obvious chagrin of opposition. His prostrated entry into the parliament, hither to unseen and unheard, caught the imagination of an entire country as if it was waiting for a hero. His 15th August 2014 speech from the rampants of Red Fort, with no bullet proof enclosure was the ultimate from any chief executive of a country anywhere in the world. Quite a few in the media were bowled over. Showing humility, after the victory, he was gracious in saying while accepting the leadership of the treasury benches, “there are no enemies in politics. It is our responsibility to take everybody along”. But four years down the line what are we taking home? Not only the job growth was abysmal even the Acche Din which NAMO promised is increasingly becoming a mirage. The entire opposition seems to have ganged up against BJP in general and Modi in particular. Whether it’s the Demonetization or G.S.T, both well intentioned but largely failed in its hallowed objectives, have only caused suffering to number of sections of our society. But party kept on harping that it has only done well with some passing inconvenience. Then there are those sad happenings mostly in north India and Gujarat. The violence from Gun Rakshaks, attacks on Dalits, attacks on Muslims and the lack of sincere and honest disapproval by the party leadership including NaMo. Some belated noises did come about which failed to assuage the pain of those who suffered at the hands of these fringe elements. Look at Khatua & Unnao, although not quite a national catastrophe as media tried to make it, it has been a blot difficult to erase, especially the open support of BJP functionaries and ministers taking cudgels on behalf of the accused. It was indeed a fall for the nation as a whole. Yes NaMo acted rather firmly and decisively on both cases, but only after the widespread furor in the public space. The damage was done. A feeling that NaMo acts selectively, has stayed. Unilateral hoisting of Khattar in Haryana and Adityanath in UP as Chief Ministers has done enough damage. Both have proved themselves as incompetent managers of crisis and to make matters worse Yogi Adityanath is arrogant as well. Look at the reaction of Modi on the death of some 20 people under the fly-over collapse in Varanasi. It was almost immediate. But the Thuthukudi firing where some 15 have been killed, no response came from NaMo. If the opposition accuses this silence to the donation by Vedanta Group to BJP, can they be faulted? Thus there are many areas requiring positive intervention. However, those who are inspired by Narendra Modi’s leadership have their own stories to tell.
There have been many new and better initiatives by the NDA II, under Narendra Modi. Quite a few of them have yielded visible results. But largely it is still a work-in-progress. It will take time for fuller realization and greater impact on the targeted sections of Indians. It is also true that, there has been no known case of corruption in public space involving any of its members or ministries. But the case involving Jay Shah, son of Amit Shah is still simmering without the last word on it, similarly the involvement of Union Minister Nithin Gadkary in the wrong doings of the infrastructure company IRB of Pune, who continues to get major road contracts. It is the same company accused of killing Sathish Shetty, a Pune based RTI activist, who exposed a huge land deal involving this company. Therefore to say that NDA has done nothing or has failed in all fronts is plain hogwash and an attempt at misleading the public. If all the listings of the positives and negatives are compared, certainly positives are either more or certainly not less than negatives.
An area where NDA II under NaMo has scored well is the foreign policy area. The personal foray of Narendra Modi, has been a spectacular success. His every visit abroad has been largely successful. Pakistan is clearly uncomfortable with the leadership of NaMo, due to his decisive unambiguous stand. Similarly China has taken him far more seriously than any other leaders of the region.
The quiet but significant transformation on the Saudi-India relationship has been accelerated in recent years by India’s readiness to co-operate extensively with Saudi allies like the UAE and Egypt. India has become the first country to receive Saudi approval for Air India to overfly Saudi Air space en route to Israel. There also appears to be increased recognitions that India can play a constructive role in the security of Gulf region.
“As it prepares for the 2019 general elections”, writes political commentator Kamalendra Kanwar. “The BJP has much ground to retrieve. Though it is in the saddle in 22 states across the country, it has to stave off anti-incumbency through an imaginative approach. The by-elections have given the opposition a new hope but capitalizing on the advantage gained would be no mean task. Agreeing on a rival to Modi, who can forge and cement an alliance, would be a tough goal with too many claimants and not enough talent” he added. Also, there is this TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor which may favour Narendra Modi as a strong & decisive leader.
Besides any government or experiment has to last at least 10 years to make any major visible difference and this just finished 4 years are not a measure of its success or failure. NDA II led by NaMo despite some of its negatives deserves another chance at the hustings for the sake of India and Indians!
 
J. Shriyan

 


       

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