FOCUS
ELECTION 2019, MODI VS MAHAGHATBANDAN, WILL INDIA WIN?
Elections come and elections go. In a democracy it is nothing new. It has been happening for all these past seventy plus years. Before 1975, it was only Congress that ruled the country, although, in Kerala and West Bengal, Left parties did make their foray. Fortunately, the influence of Left remained largely confined to these two states only, although in Bengal, the Left is on the wane with the emergence of local alternative political force, the TMC or Trinamool Congress.
It was in 1975, post Jaya Prakash Narayan movement that single party dominance of Congress party was replaced by the Janata Party led rainbow coalition. But the infighting within the Janata combine led to the Indira Gandhi led Congress to comeback in 1977, she ruled until she was assassinated on 31st October 1984 by her body guard leading to the election of her son Rajeev Gandhi with over 400 seats. Bofors scam made the short work of his government. Before he could stage a comeback he too was assassinated by Sri Lankan LTTE cadres. PV Narasimha Rao comes with his first coalition government led by Congress in 1991 that lasted for full 5 years term.
Before PV Narasimha Rao, 2 governments led by VP Singh for 11 months and Chandra Shekar for 7 months, were in office. Following Narasimha Rao government, NDA I ruled from May 1998 to May 2004, was the longest with interval of HD Deve Gowda and I. K. Gujral, both lasting 11 months each, by some kind of Janata Dal combine.
Post NDA I, coalition led by Congress ruled for two full terms with Dr Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister.
So, when Narendra Modi was voted to power on his ABKI BAAR MODI SARCAR, for the first time in 30 years, a single party government came to power, although for record it is NDA II with BJP in clear majority in the Lok Sabha.
Nobody remotely expected that in 2014, there shall be a single party majority in the Loksabha election and that a single party would form the government. But to think that this single party can be BJP, even Narendra Modi, the architect of this victory could not have dreamt of such an unlikely possibility. But then truth can always be stranger than fiction! In the event Narendra Damodardas Modi romped home with 282 seats, clear 10 seats more than the half way mark. Congress was pulverized to register its lowest ever seats (44) in the parliament. To think that it couldn’t get even 10% of the total Loksabha strength of 543 seats, speaks volumes of its humiliation after back to back -10 years- government at the centre from 2004 to 2014, when Congress had 206 seats on its own.
If that was way back in 2014 we are now in 2019. Within the next less than 100 days, there is going to be a new government. Can Abki Baar Modi Sarcar, repeat its so-called Modi Wave!
In 2014, there indeed was a wave in favour of Narendra Modi. Like Nitin Gadkari, one of Modi’s ministers, had said “BJP rode to power by making tall promises”. It is true that Narendra Damodardas Modi, the Prime Ministerial candidate of BJP did indeed make tall promises in 2014. But then, every political party and every politician, every time the election is round the corner, make tall promises. Among his many promises were ‘15 lakh in every account, 2 crores job every year and Achche Din’. All of them have failed to happen and everybody knows about it. But to say nothing has happened, in the direction of realizing these promises, will not be correct.
It is true that black money, which if only could be brought back to the country, we could have got this 15 lakh or 15000 in each bank a/c. There have been attempts to curb black money in different forms, although 15 lakh in every account of some 1300 million Indians is a tall call. Probably it was an election jumla. And all those people who are pathologically opposed to Modi are having a field day in making fun of this 15 lakh-Coming, Coming, Not Coming!
One of the major visible failures of the NDA II has been the low generation of employment. 2 crores jobs per year was by itself a difficult target. But then this is how all politicians promise. Of course, it is wrong to say, that government miserably failed in creating jobs.
There are so many factors that influence the creation or generation of employment, which are both national and international. There have been attempts in creating avenues for employment generations like, MUDRA, Start-ups and similar self employment schemes and support to medium and small industries, which can generate employment opportunities, both direct and indirect.
Coming to Achche Din, again it is debatable depending upon the prism through which you try to see things. There are sections of Indians who have done well; there are sections of Indians who have not done well. So it is truly a mixed situation.
However, supporters of Modi and his NDA II, refer to ‘Garibi Hatao’ programme of Indira Gandhi, where lakhs of crores of rupees were spent year after year, but 'Garibi' is still around. And there are any number of areas where previous governments of opposition parties have failed rather badly.
So accusations of lack of performance or absence of performance are the stock response of all opposition political parties.
But, with all these so-called negatives portrayed by the opposition and their media friends not many have taken on objective assessment of NDA II led by Narendra Modi.
While it is true that there are visible gaps in performance, or decisions of the government having gone off the tangent leading to horrendous experience of at least a section of Indians, like demonetization cannot be glossed over. There is no doubt that demonetization had affected micro enterprises, leading to huge job losses especially in villages and semi-urban areas totally dependent on cash.
But like the wag said “whenever someone does something thoroughly stupid, it is always with good intention”. Modi obviously had good intention to fix black money, parallel economy, money laundering, expanding tax and revenue net by digitising all money transactions. So, it is wrong to say that these objectives were not fulfilled. It has done well in many ways. But the opposition is baying for the blood of Narendra Modi.
So, opposition parties have this Maha Ghatbandan and other ghatbandans in place, to fix Modi and his BJP. Will they succeed?
Question is profoundly mixed.
Modi has given a very strong and decisive leadership to the country. It is apparent, that there is nobody among opposition leaders to match the curriculum vitae of Modi. May be that is how former Chief Minister of UP Mulayam Singh of Samaj wadi Party has publicly stated in parliament that Modi must comeback as the Prime Minister of India again.
It is true that there could be many areas of complaints which opposition political parties can highlight to influence voters’ psyche. It is simply not the case that Modi or Modi’s administration has been blemishless. There are many short comings which can be highlighted.
But then there is no government which is 100% good and no government 100% bad. All governments in a democracy are there to serve the people of the country. All of them help the people to solve their problems, to empower them socially, educationally, financially etc. Of course they may not solve each and every problem. Some they will solve and some will be left for people to fend for themselves. Governments also help their friends, families of their Ministers and Members of Parliament and of course their cronies as well. So, it depends, it can be 50-50 or 60% positive and 40% negative or 30% positive and 70% negative. This is ongoing. That is how these governments change every 5 years after the election. The election in India in recent times has been a potent tool to express voters’ unhappiness. After 1975, there has been continuous change. One party government was replaced by multi party coalition governments. After 30 years, a single party government has come to power. It is to the credit of BJP led by their mercurial leader Modi, that they could manage the majority on their own. From a mere 2 seats in 1984 to 282 seats in 2014, it is a massive surge. Similarly for the Congress from the high of 414 seats in 1984 to 44 in 2014, it’s a very huge fall. Narendra Modi and his handpicked party chief Amit Shah had nastily screamed ‘Congress Mukth Bharat’. That was rather very stupid and arrogant on their part to say so. Nobody has any right to say Congress Mukth Bharat or BJP/Modi Mukth Bharat. Unfortunately political lexicon has degenerated rather badly these days with blatant personal attacks leading to character assassinations. But the great public, despite inadequacy of many kinds tried to successfully speak its mind. That’s how, despite setbacks, Congress has been able to come back, in many states. But will it also come back in 2019 Loksabha election?
It appears, for whatever reasons, there is a whole lot of opposition to BJP in general and Modi in particular. Congress out of power is trying to comeback by hook or crook. So, a Mahaghatbandhan has been formed of desperate political outfits. But what are the antecedents of these outfits? Congress is a family controlled party, so is JD(S), controlled by Deve Gowda family. In the most populous state of UP, Samajwadi Party is controlled by Father/Son- Mulayam & Akhilesh Yadav, In Kashmir, it is Farooq Abdulla family, then in Bihar RJD of Lalu Yadav family, West Bengal’s Mamata is grooming her nephew to take over TMC, so also Mayawathi’s nephew may take over BSP. Then DMK in South its Karunanidhi family owned party. All these parties are in the business of serving the nation, but more importantly their own family and friends besides the people of their respective constituency. Then you have Sharad Pawar, waiting in the wings to become the Prime Minister, also part of the Maha ghatbandhan. His NCP is again family controlled. Can these desperate groups of desperados, with a single point programme of Modi hatao, succeed in getting the required majority and form the next government at Delhi? It’s a billion $ question.
Narendra Modi came like a breath of fresh air, with dynamism hither to unseen in the Indian body politic. Wordsmith that he is, he mesmerized most Indians in the immediate post election short run. Novelty, like all else, tend to wear off over a period. Tall promises catapulted him to power. Its non-fulfillment has the power to dethrone him. But it is also true that his initiatives in bringing about transparency have created difficulties for those who lived and practiced deceit and wheeling dealing across the political spectrum.
So, it is natural that most opposition parties have ganged up against Modi & his BJP. Would they succeed? By the time this goes to press, there would be hardly 2 months for the great public to make their choice clear.
It is true that there are two clear groups, one who want NDA II led by Narendra Modi to come back to power duly elected in the April/May Election 2019. They see everything positive about Modi, the Prime Minister, that he is the most hard working prime minister in the world, with more than 15 hours work every day and that he has worked without any holiday or break. According to them, he is constantly working for the betterment of the country without the baggage of family. They feel that he has emerged as a global leader and due to his meetings with world leaders and his trips to foreign countries; he could greatly improve the image of the country. His admirers say, because of this enhanced image of India, we feel proud to be identified as Indians anywhere in the world. It is also true that lot of world leaders and opinion makers talk very positively of Narendra Modi and his leadership of India. But equally true is there are areas of concern, where Modi has been rather negative, and his admirers feel those negatives are less as compared to his positives.
Shekar Gupta, a former Editor of the Indian Express, has on record stated that, there are 5 areas where Modi government has done well. “What are these 5 areas, the first area in my view is, the most important in the national interest is the IBC process, the Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code Process. This government has made it impossible for any company that defaults bank loans repayment to get away with it. In the past there was a culture of immunity with companies that wiped out shareholders values and lenders money as well. Now you can’t do it. Result is, one of India’s most powerful companies, Anil Ambani group has filed for bankruptcy, its crown jewel, Reliance Communication. So Modi government has made it impossible for top industrialists, who face bankruptcy now to make phone calls to Delhi to get reprieve. Once words spread, the big boys can also fall, that nobody is too big to fail, others also fall in line. Banks are now reporting that people are coming back with money. It’s not that how much money comes back; it’s a question of cultural and political change. In the past entire system protected bankrupt business men”.
“Another important change is inflation targeting. It inherited an inflation rate of 8.33%. It is now down to 2.2% and it is because of the inflation targeting. People complain about high fuel prices, but look at their monthly budget, they have been compensated with low inflation elsewhere”.
“The next point is better tax compliance and better tax collection, which is improved tax to GDP ratio under this government. This has created headroom to do many good things, like large investment in infrastructure. People often ask this government has collected so much money on extra oil revenues by not reducing prices but where does that money go? A lot of that money has gone on construction of highways, ports, railways, sagarmala and other projects, airports etc. In fact, there has been a massive increase in the past 10 years, as a percentage of GDP India’s infrastructure spending has been almost 3 times. And much of that increase has been during the last 4 years. Lot of it has gone in railways, the impact of which can be seen only later”.
“The last is GST. Any government that introduces GST can have trouble for some time. It is a question of holding ones nerve. Of course this government could have planned it better, implemented it better, but having done, it did not lose its nerve. GST is settling down. These five success areas have given the Modi government the leverage to give concessions and freebies in budget and allocate money for even more concessions, like payment to farmers etc”.
Thus there are areas where government has done well. And this is coming from skeptics like Shekar Gupta. Then there is this report from Global Multi Dimensional Poverty Index 2018 (GMDPI) which clearly tells about the progress of NDA II schemes like Deendayal Anthyodaya Yojana- National Rural Livelihood Mission (DAY – NRLM)
Reportedly GMDPI, assessed the period between April 2014 & November 2018. According to it, people in rural areas have higher live stocks now than before April 2014. Some of the other findings include the higher tendency of people to save in formal institutions like banks, higher loan size and more borrowing capacity. The report also revealed that households under the mission earned 22% more than those which are not under the scheme. In terms of numbers, report said that scheme included 2411 blocks which resulted in the addition of three crore women. Justifiably, Rural Development Ministry officials are upbeat. “This is just the proof of our hard work in the past five years. We must compliment people for their more than 100% participation for the success of the scheme” said an official. Reportedly assessment included Mahila Kisan Shashakthikaran Pariyojana (MKSP) which has shown addition of some 3 Lakh women farmers to the MKSP. “This is a great news as the MKSP serves two objectives of women empowerment and employment generation”, the ministry official stated.
However the section that wants to save India from BJP and its leader Narendra Modi has its own story why NDA II has to be shown the door. Right now they have Rafale as the most potent weapon to hit PM Modi. Prima facie, there is some aspect of non-transparency in the deal, although corruption is not suspected. It is pertinent there should be a white paper from PMO to clear the cloud of suspicion. Then there are alleged stories of minority bashing in the name of cow protection, which is, while being true to some extent is, not very serious in a country of 1300 million people. Dalits have suffered at the hands of higher caste. Just by making Mr. Kovind, the President of India, you cannot assuage the hurt suffered by the community. If making Mr. Kovind, the President of India will bring vote, only disappointment shall be in store. This act of BJP/Modi will not benefit either. There were better choices, which in ultimate analysis would have got positive votes from discerning voters. Amit Shah, the BJP President had said before losing Rajasthan, M.P and Chhattisgarh “Congress can only day dream of winning polls”. And Congress won them all. This Amit Shah is a big mouth. He may be a good organizer, let him organize more and talk less. He can only bring embarrassment to the government by talking more than necessary. “Economy in perilous state” tells P Chidambaram, without giving any details. Prima facie, there are not many issues opposition parties can really raise and make things difficult. Difficulties have come from within the party MPs and leaders. Some of them are incompetent, some of them are motor mouths, some of them are even criminals, some of them have become self appointed adversaries, like Yashwant Sinha, Arun Shorie, Shatrugan Sinha etc. Some of them have made life difficult for Muslims & Dalits. Less than 100 days are short for any corrective measures. But Modi being Modi, can plan something for these negative features and negative people. Hence all in all, BJP led by Modi, with allies making the NDA II may after all comeback to power, may not be in same numbers as that of 2014. But with allies old and new, NDA II may romp home to form the government. Opposition is rickety. They do not have vision of 'what after 2019'. Their visions are limited to their personal and family ambitions, not the nation. They do not have leaders, who can inspire confidence among people, mainly the middle class. Besides except Congress and BJP no other party lasted full term in all their experiments of forming government at the centre. Hence Mahaghatbandhan may never be able to give a stable government.
If NDA II keeps talking about positives of the government and makes honest attempt to make amends where needed, be it Dalits or Muslims, without attacking opposition and its leaders, a positive atmosphere can be created to trust and vote for NDA II. Hope in the interest of the country, NDA II is given another 5 year term to complete the work-in-progress left incomplete. Under the circumstances, only way appears to be another term for NDA II. Hope electorates do think about the country and act. We appealed to the voters in 2014, and will repeat it for 2019 as well, “Don’t be confused, make-up your minds coolly but decisively, vote for political morality, more than anything, vote for India”.
J. Shriyan
Elections come and elections go. In a democracy it is nothing new. It has been happening for all these past seventy plus years. Before 1975, it was only Congress that ruled the country, although, in Kerala and West Bengal, Left parties did make their foray. Fortunately, the influence of Left remained largely confined to these two states only, although in Bengal, the Left is on the wane with the emergence of local alternative political force, the TMC or Trinamool Congress.
It was in 1975, post Jaya Prakash Narayan movement that single party dominance of Congress party was replaced by the Janata Party led rainbow coalition. But the infighting within the Janata combine led to the Indira Gandhi led Congress to comeback in 1977, she ruled until she was assassinated on 31st October 1984 by her body guard leading to the election of her son Rajeev Gandhi with over 400 seats. Bofors scam made the short work of his government. Before he could stage a comeback he too was assassinated by Sri Lankan LTTE cadres. PV Narasimha Rao comes with his first coalition government led by Congress in 1991 that lasted for full 5 years term.
Before PV Narasimha Rao, 2 governments led by VP Singh for 11 months and Chandra Shekar for 7 months, were in office. Following Narasimha Rao government, NDA I ruled from May 1998 to May 2004, was the longest with interval of HD Deve Gowda and I. K. Gujral, both lasting 11 months each, by some kind of Janata Dal combine.
Post NDA I, coalition led by Congress ruled for two full terms with Dr Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister.
So, when Narendra Modi was voted to power on his ABKI BAAR MODI SARCAR, for the first time in 30 years, a single party government came to power, although for record it is NDA II with BJP in clear majority in the Lok Sabha.
Nobody remotely expected that in 2014, there shall be a single party majority in the Loksabha election and that a single party would form the government. But to think that this single party can be BJP, even Narendra Modi, the architect of this victory could not have dreamt of such an unlikely possibility. But then truth can always be stranger than fiction! In the event Narendra Damodardas Modi romped home with 282 seats, clear 10 seats more than the half way mark. Congress was pulverized to register its lowest ever seats (44) in the parliament. To think that it couldn’t get even 10% of the total Loksabha strength of 543 seats, speaks volumes of its humiliation after back to back -10 years- government at the centre from 2004 to 2014, when Congress had 206 seats on its own.
If that was way back in 2014 we are now in 2019. Within the next less than 100 days, there is going to be a new government. Can Abki Baar Modi Sarcar, repeat its so-called Modi Wave!
In 2014, there indeed was a wave in favour of Narendra Modi. Like Nitin Gadkari, one of Modi’s ministers, had said “BJP rode to power by making tall promises”. It is true that Narendra Damodardas Modi, the Prime Ministerial candidate of BJP did indeed make tall promises in 2014. But then, every political party and every politician, every time the election is round the corner, make tall promises. Among his many promises were ‘15 lakh in every account, 2 crores job every year and Achche Din’. All of them have failed to happen and everybody knows about it. But to say nothing has happened, in the direction of realizing these promises, will not be correct.
It is true that black money, which if only could be brought back to the country, we could have got this 15 lakh or 15000 in each bank a/c. There have been attempts to curb black money in different forms, although 15 lakh in every account of some 1300 million Indians is a tall call. Probably it was an election jumla. And all those people who are pathologically opposed to Modi are having a field day in making fun of this 15 lakh-Coming, Coming, Not Coming!
One of the major visible failures of the NDA II has been the low generation of employment. 2 crores jobs per year was by itself a difficult target. But then this is how all politicians promise. Of course, it is wrong to say, that government miserably failed in creating jobs.
There are so many factors that influence the creation or generation of employment, which are both national and international. There have been attempts in creating avenues for employment generations like, MUDRA, Start-ups and similar self employment schemes and support to medium and small industries, which can generate employment opportunities, both direct and indirect.
Coming to Achche Din, again it is debatable depending upon the prism through which you try to see things. There are sections of Indians who have done well; there are sections of Indians who have not done well. So it is truly a mixed situation.
However, supporters of Modi and his NDA II, refer to ‘Garibi Hatao’ programme of Indira Gandhi, where lakhs of crores of rupees were spent year after year, but 'Garibi' is still around. And there are any number of areas where previous governments of opposition parties have failed rather badly.
So accusations of lack of performance or absence of performance are the stock response of all opposition political parties.
But, with all these so-called negatives portrayed by the opposition and their media friends not many have taken on objective assessment of NDA II led by Narendra Modi.
While it is true that there are visible gaps in performance, or decisions of the government having gone off the tangent leading to horrendous experience of at least a section of Indians, like demonetization cannot be glossed over. There is no doubt that demonetization had affected micro enterprises, leading to huge job losses especially in villages and semi-urban areas totally dependent on cash.
But like the wag said “whenever someone does something thoroughly stupid, it is always with good intention”. Modi obviously had good intention to fix black money, parallel economy, money laundering, expanding tax and revenue net by digitising all money transactions. So, it is wrong to say that these objectives were not fulfilled. It has done well in many ways. But the opposition is baying for the blood of Narendra Modi.
So, opposition parties have this Maha Ghatbandan and other ghatbandans in place, to fix Modi and his BJP. Will they succeed?
Question is profoundly mixed.
Modi has given a very strong and decisive leadership to the country. It is apparent, that there is nobody among opposition leaders to match the curriculum vitae of Modi. May be that is how former Chief Minister of UP Mulayam Singh of Samaj wadi Party has publicly stated in parliament that Modi must comeback as the Prime Minister of India again.
It is true that there could be many areas of complaints which opposition political parties can highlight to influence voters’ psyche. It is simply not the case that Modi or Modi’s administration has been blemishless. There are many short comings which can be highlighted.
But then there is no government which is 100% good and no government 100% bad. All governments in a democracy are there to serve the people of the country. All of them help the people to solve their problems, to empower them socially, educationally, financially etc. Of course they may not solve each and every problem. Some they will solve and some will be left for people to fend for themselves. Governments also help their friends, families of their Ministers and Members of Parliament and of course their cronies as well. So, it depends, it can be 50-50 or 60% positive and 40% negative or 30% positive and 70% negative. This is ongoing. That is how these governments change every 5 years after the election. The election in India in recent times has been a potent tool to express voters’ unhappiness. After 1975, there has been continuous change. One party government was replaced by multi party coalition governments. After 30 years, a single party government has come to power. It is to the credit of BJP led by their mercurial leader Modi, that they could manage the majority on their own. From a mere 2 seats in 1984 to 282 seats in 2014, it is a massive surge. Similarly for the Congress from the high of 414 seats in 1984 to 44 in 2014, it’s a very huge fall. Narendra Modi and his handpicked party chief Amit Shah had nastily screamed ‘Congress Mukth Bharat’. That was rather very stupid and arrogant on their part to say so. Nobody has any right to say Congress Mukth Bharat or BJP/Modi Mukth Bharat. Unfortunately political lexicon has degenerated rather badly these days with blatant personal attacks leading to character assassinations. But the great public, despite inadequacy of many kinds tried to successfully speak its mind. That’s how, despite setbacks, Congress has been able to come back, in many states. But will it also come back in 2019 Loksabha election?
It appears, for whatever reasons, there is a whole lot of opposition to BJP in general and Modi in particular. Congress out of power is trying to comeback by hook or crook. So, a Mahaghatbandhan has been formed of desperate political outfits. But what are the antecedents of these outfits? Congress is a family controlled party, so is JD(S), controlled by Deve Gowda family. In the most populous state of UP, Samajwadi Party is controlled by Father/Son- Mulayam & Akhilesh Yadav, In Kashmir, it is Farooq Abdulla family, then in Bihar RJD of Lalu Yadav family, West Bengal’s Mamata is grooming her nephew to take over TMC, so also Mayawathi’s nephew may take over BSP. Then DMK in South its Karunanidhi family owned party. All these parties are in the business of serving the nation, but more importantly their own family and friends besides the people of their respective constituency. Then you have Sharad Pawar, waiting in the wings to become the Prime Minister, also part of the Maha ghatbandhan. His NCP is again family controlled. Can these desperate groups of desperados, with a single point programme of Modi hatao, succeed in getting the required majority and form the next government at Delhi? It’s a billion $ question.
Narendra Modi came like a breath of fresh air, with dynamism hither to unseen in the Indian body politic. Wordsmith that he is, he mesmerized most Indians in the immediate post election short run. Novelty, like all else, tend to wear off over a period. Tall promises catapulted him to power. Its non-fulfillment has the power to dethrone him. But it is also true that his initiatives in bringing about transparency have created difficulties for those who lived and practiced deceit and wheeling dealing across the political spectrum.
So, it is natural that most opposition parties have ganged up against Modi & his BJP. Would they succeed? By the time this goes to press, there would be hardly 2 months for the great public to make their choice clear.
It is true that there are two clear groups, one who want NDA II led by Narendra Modi to come back to power duly elected in the April/May Election 2019. They see everything positive about Modi, the Prime Minister, that he is the most hard working prime minister in the world, with more than 15 hours work every day and that he has worked without any holiday or break. According to them, he is constantly working for the betterment of the country without the baggage of family. They feel that he has emerged as a global leader and due to his meetings with world leaders and his trips to foreign countries; he could greatly improve the image of the country. His admirers say, because of this enhanced image of India, we feel proud to be identified as Indians anywhere in the world. It is also true that lot of world leaders and opinion makers talk very positively of Narendra Modi and his leadership of India. But equally true is there are areas of concern, where Modi has been rather negative, and his admirers feel those negatives are less as compared to his positives.
Shekar Gupta, a former Editor of the Indian Express, has on record stated that, there are 5 areas where Modi government has done well. “What are these 5 areas, the first area in my view is, the most important in the national interest is the IBC process, the Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code Process. This government has made it impossible for any company that defaults bank loans repayment to get away with it. In the past there was a culture of immunity with companies that wiped out shareholders values and lenders money as well. Now you can’t do it. Result is, one of India’s most powerful companies, Anil Ambani group has filed for bankruptcy, its crown jewel, Reliance Communication. So Modi government has made it impossible for top industrialists, who face bankruptcy now to make phone calls to Delhi to get reprieve. Once words spread, the big boys can also fall, that nobody is too big to fail, others also fall in line. Banks are now reporting that people are coming back with money. It’s not that how much money comes back; it’s a question of cultural and political change. In the past entire system protected bankrupt business men”.
“Another important change is inflation targeting. It inherited an inflation rate of 8.33%. It is now down to 2.2% and it is because of the inflation targeting. People complain about high fuel prices, but look at their monthly budget, they have been compensated with low inflation elsewhere”.
“The next point is better tax compliance and better tax collection, which is improved tax to GDP ratio under this government. This has created headroom to do many good things, like large investment in infrastructure. People often ask this government has collected so much money on extra oil revenues by not reducing prices but where does that money go? A lot of that money has gone on construction of highways, ports, railways, sagarmala and other projects, airports etc. In fact, there has been a massive increase in the past 10 years, as a percentage of GDP India’s infrastructure spending has been almost 3 times. And much of that increase has been during the last 4 years. Lot of it has gone in railways, the impact of which can be seen only later”.
“The last is GST. Any government that introduces GST can have trouble for some time. It is a question of holding ones nerve. Of course this government could have planned it better, implemented it better, but having done, it did not lose its nerve. GST is settling down. These five success areas have given the Modi government the leverage to give concessions and freebies in budget and allocate money for even more concessions, like payment to farmers etc”.
Thus there are areas where government has done well. And this is coming from skeptics like Shekar Gupta. Then there is this report from Global Multi Dimensional Poverty Index 2018 (GMDPI) which clearly tells about the progress of NDA II schemes like Deendayal Anthyodaya Yojana- National Rural Livelihood Mission (DAY – NRLM)
Reportedly GMDPI, assessed the period between April 2014 & November 2018. According to it, people in rural areas have higher live stocks now than before April 2014. Some of the other findings include the higher tendency of people to save in formal institutions like banks, higher loan size and more borrowing capacity. The report also revealed that households under the mission earned 22% more than those which are not under the scheme. In terms of numbers, report said that scheme included 2411 blocks which resulted in the addition of three crore women. Justifiably, Rural Development Ministry officials are upbeat. “This is just the proof of our hard work in the past five years. We must compliment people for their more than 100% participation for the success of the scheme” said an official. Reportedly assessment included Mahila Kisan Shashakthikaran Pariyojana (MKSP) which has shown addition of some 3 Lakh women farmers to the MKSP. “This is a great news as the MKSP serves two objectives of women empowerment and employment generation”, the ministry official stated.
However the section that wants to save India from BJP and its leader Narendra Modi has its own story why NDA II has to be shown the door. Right now they have Rafale as the most potent weapon to hit PM Modi. Prima facie, there is some aspect of non-transparency in the deal, although corruption is not suspected. It is pertinent there should be a white paper from PMO to clear the cloud of suspicion. Then there are alleged stories of minority bashing in the name of cow protection, which is, while being true to some extent is, not very serious in a country of 1300 million people. Dalits have suffered at the hands of higher caste. Just by making Mr. Kovind, the President of India, you cannot assuage the hurt suffered by the community. If making Mr. Kovind, the President of India will bring vote, only disappointment shall be in store. This act of BJP/Modi will not benefit either. There were better choices, which in ultimate analysis would have got positive votes from discerning voters. Amit Shah, the BJP President had said before losing Rajasthan, M.P and Chhattisgarh “Congress can only day dream of winning polls”. And Congress won them all. This Amit Shah is a big mouth. He may be a good organizer, let him organize more and talk less. He can only bring embarrassment to the government by talking more than necessary. “Economy in perilous state” tells P Chidambaram, without giving any details. Prima facie, there are not many issues opposition parties can really raise and make things difficult. Difficulties have come from within the party MPs and leaders. Some of them are incompetent, some of them are motor mouths, some of them are even criminals, some of them have become self appointed adversaries, like Yashwant Sinha, Arun Shorie, Shatrugan Sinha etc. Some of them have made life difficult for Muslims & Dalits. Less than 100 days are short for any corrective measures. But Modi being Modi, can plan something for these negative features and negative people. Hence all in all, BJP led by Modi, with allies making the NDA II may after all comeback to power, may not be in same numbers as that of 2014. But with allies old and new, NDA II may romp home to form the government. Opposition is rickety. They do not have vision of 'what after 2019'. Their visions are limited to their personal and family ambitions, not the nation. They do not have leaders, who can inspire confidence among people, mainly the middle class. Besides except Congress and BJP no other party lasted full term in all their experiments of forming government at the centre. Hence Mahaghatbandhan may never be able to give a stable government.
If NDA II keeps talking about positives of the government and makes honest attempt to make amends where needed, be it Dalits or Muslims, without attacking opposition and its leaders, a positive atmosphere can be created to trust and vote for NDA II. Hope in the interest of the country, NDA II is given another 5 year term to complete the work-in-progress left incomplete. Under the circumstances, only way appears to be another term for NDA II. Hope electorates do think about the country and act. We appealed to the voters in 2014, and will repeat it for 2019 as well, “Don’t be confused, make-up your minds coolly but decisively, vote for political morality, more than anything, vote for India”.
J. Shriyan
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