FOCUS

 YEARS 2019- 2024: MESSAGE OF MANDATE

On 19^th May 2019, when the last vote was cast, all those poll pundits waiting impatiently to tell the world about how Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party, the BJP along with their ghatbhandan members of the NDA is likely to come back despite Mahaghatbandan, the Congress Party and umpteen others, who wrote off Narendra Modi in the Election 2019, it was like a thunder-bolt.

In the event, within the next 84 hours, on the morning of 23^rd May 2019 when the actual counting of votes started, BJP and its National Democratic Alliance ( NDA) established unassailable early lead only to end up as its best ever performance with 303 seats for BJP itself with another 50 from the NDA alliance partners.

This stupendous performance was never anticipated before the polls by even the most optimistic political analyst. Especially after the debacle only a few months ago in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh assembly election, where Congress formed the government after decades of being out of power, the comeback by BJP was indeed incredibly astonishing. Of course those who won the day kept saying ‘we were sure of this win and the size of the win. But in 2004 too they had the same confidence that failed to sustain.

Looking back, over the past few months, there were innumerable uncharitable, uncivil and unparliamentary barbs hurled at the common beite noire of opposition politicians, Narendra Damodardas Modi or simply Narendra Modi. From Modi creating class Conflict (RaGa), to Modi’s goal is to destroy constitution, (RaGa), to Modi’s face showing BJP’s defeat: (RaGa), Narendra Modi is a national calamity – (Pawar), never saw a more cowardly PM- (Priyanka Vadra), even if an NDA government under PM Modi is sworn in it won’t last more than 15/20 days- (Pawar), RSS is deserting Modi. As a result Modi is sweating- (Mayawati), on May 23 it will be bye bye for Modi- (RaGa), Chawkidar Chor Hai- (RaGa), looks difficult for BJP to reach 280 mark- Shiv Sena, Stunt man Modi changing goal post –Abhishek Manu Singhvi, Narendra Modi will not remain prime minister after May 23, 2019-(Joker cine actor Vivek Raj), PM Aurngazeb ka avatar–Sanjay Nirupam - Congress. In the history of 70 years of India, we never had a PM as bad as Narendra Modi- (CM Ibrahim Multiple party jumper and Congress leader). If Narendra Modi wins 2019 election & become PM again, I will give up politics, (father Devegowda & son H D Revanna).

Despite opposition and media too being extremely unkind to Narendra Modi, BJP has piggy backed to a historic win with such resounding numbers, clearly proving what PM Modi had stated, while campaigning in UP. Reportedly he had remarked “more they abuse me, more people love me”. That left likes of Sharad Pawar, Rahul Gandhi, Devegowda, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Mamata Bannerji etc numb and shell shocked.

Except likes of party president Amit Shah none would have dared to talk about absolute majority or more. Many had predicted that NDA II would come back to become NDA III, all inclusive it would just cross 272. But just about every opposition leader had hoped that there wouldn’t be another NDA government led by BJP and in turn led by Narendra Modi. They even prophesied, if at all NDA manages to cross the 272 mark, there will be another leader and not Narendra Modi. In the event, every calculation of everyone went upsy-turvy. And BJP led by their leader Narendra Modi romped home in devastating style to the utter disbelief of just about every leader worth the name.

Why this phenomenon has come about after all? Starting in 1952 with just 3 seats in the Loksabha, Jana Sangh, the original political card holder with RSS backing it, could only grow to 4 seats after 5 years in 1957, in a country, where Hindus were more than 80%. But it was in 1956, that constitution was amended to include the term ‘Secular’ and suddenly there appeared to be some churning in some pockets, thus 5 years down the line from 04seats in 1957 it jumped 10 seats to 14 in 1962 and then to 35 in 1967, but declined to 22 five years later. Emergency followed. All opposition parties barring communists launched Janata Party under the stewardship of Jaya Prakash Narayan or JP. Congress lost the power at the centre for the first time. Inherent contradiction among coalition parties killed the JP experiment. The rendezvous lasted less than 3 years. Congress came back to power. Jana Sangh became Bharatiya Janatha Party in 1980. In the election that followed, it could only manage to win just 2 seats into the Loksabha. In 1989 it registered an upsurge. It clocked 85 seats and then 120 seats in 1991 to 161 seats in 1996 to 182 seats in 1998/1999, when it formed the first NDA government along with some likeminded parties with common minimum program. However it couldn’t maintain the momentum in 2004 and lost power with its own score at 138, five years later it got further reduced to 116.

It was around this time BJP started experiencing some vacuum at the top. Same leadership was there for a long time. Some fresh blood was the need of the hour for BJP to show its mass appeal.

“Hindu fundamentalism, long the thrust of a section of the middle class, has never got much response in an India whose population is 80% Hindu. It needs to be pointed out that India remains a secular state not because 1/5 of its population is Muslim, Sikh or Christian and therefore obviously has a vested interest in a secular constitution, but because 9 out of 10 Hindus do not believe in violence against minorities. If all the Hindus had been zealots, no law and order machinery in the world would have prevented the massacre of Muslims who are scattered in villages and towns all across the country” wrote M.J Akbar, then a Congress MP and a friend of late Rajeev Gandhi in 1985, in his book “India: The Seige Within”, (Penguin P/23).

Evolution of BJP as a political force to reckon with started fairly early in late 80s, with the realization that post independence although Hindus constituted over 80% of India’s population, politics of polarization had somehow kept them somewhat suppressed in the name of secularism.  So a feeling among many sections of Indians started to emerge that, BJP needs to be supported politically for the protection of its interest. Thus slowly and steadily from 2 seats in 1985 to 182 seats in 1998/99 BJP started to bloom. Still it did not experience its full potential, the way Congress ruled India for almost 55 years.

Here it is not out of place to quote Mobarak Haider, a Pakisthani intellectual. Post BJP victory in Election 2019, he wrote a congratulatory piece. He mentioned in his write up about the revival of old religions like Hinduism, Buddism and Christianity asking “Who kicked these religions out of their peaceful sleep?” Then he goes on to answer it himself. “Causes are complex and tragic, but everywhere we see movements for the revival of Caliphate and Sharia, provoking the believers of older religions. And then we see liberals of the West and of India, supporting these wrong Muslim movements. This process of pampering the Muslims has brought pain to the majorities of India, Europe and America. Not only that, it has also brought great harm to Muslims who have wasted their energies and resources for the last hundred years running after a mirage. They have refused to integrate with the world they live in. They have pushed the world’s billions into fear and hate. They have pushed old religions to get up in defense, while billion Muslims live in poverty and pain with their crooked leaders talk of Muslim greatness”.

In the mean while, somewhere within the ranks of Rashtriya Swayamsevek Sangh (RSS) Narendra Damodardas Modi (Narendra Modi) emerged as a unique personality deeply in love with the country. When Gujarat politics was undergoing some kind of unhealthy churning Narendra Modi was paradropped on the competing crowd of unruly BJP members in Gandhinagar. He was made the chief minister of Gujarat, without even being an MLA or MLC.

Rest as the cliché goes is history. Under his leadership Gujarat saw unprecedented development. Of course this is not to suggest that there were no lacunae. There were many grey areas, which needed attention and course correction. But when all was said and done, Gujarathis felt here is a man they can bet on. Thus began the saga of the NaMo.

There have been many instances where chief ministers of states have made it to the central cabinet. But Narendra Modi is the only one, who became the Prime Minister of the country in his very first term as Member of Parliament.

He presided over the destiny of India from 2014 to 2019. Now again he has taken over from 2019 to rule up to 2024. So he will have a 10 years term.

In public space for a long time debate raged about his second term. But surely all would agree that five years term is too short a period for any Prime Minister or any government to prove its worth. But that he would have walked away with this huge 2/3 majority along with the allies of NDA, was something never anticipated. How did this happen, has clearly rankled whole lot of people in India and abroad including The TIME which carried the piece describing Modi as India’s Divider in Chief –by Aatish Taseer, an Indo-Pak product. Where did all those who predicted the end of Narendra Modi’s political career, go so terribly wrong?! Journalist ALI Chougule writes, “A whole lot of factors and under-currents are responsible for BJP’s resounding victory. Some may have played a bigger role over others in making all the difference between BJP’s emphatic victory and the opposition’s decisive defeat. But we are still not closere to any definite answer for such a hugely decisive mandate.” 

At this point, as he starts his 2^nd innings the NDA III, it’s imperative that a stock taking of previous 5 years is taken so that the next 5 years, will not have those hick-ups, which NDA II experienced under NaMo.

Speaking post election result Prime Minister Modi, made all positive noises. They are no different from the noises he made in 2014. He is a wordsmith and orator par excellence. He has the ability to take the crowd with him. But his performance as compared to his utterances, many a time were in total variance. The print media who called him ‘statesman like’ after hearing 15^th Aug 2014 speech from the ramparts the Red Fort, wrote him off by the time it was late 2018.

On 15^th Aug 2014, he had given a clarion call for an inclusive public discourse with his stirring rhetoric. He had spoken about taking everybody along on the path of faster sustainable growth. He was all praise for the previous governments and their Prime Ministers for all the development the country witnessed until then. Thus he clearly indicated that he would go for consensual politics rather than confrontational. But 5 years down the line, he has left nobody in doubt that he has his own agenda for development and wants to push it, come what may. Having won absolute majority for his party on his own, he realized his indispensability in the short run. Jairam Ramesh of the Congress had remarked “This is one man government, very autocratic and authoritarian, where only Modi counts. Modi has marginalized his cabinet, his MPs and his party”. Jairam Ramesh is not too much off the mark. There is a grain of truth in what he had said.

So there is an element of contradiction in NaMo as well, which has to be accepted. He may not do this with any selfish motive, but ground realities, at least with some section of the society, were different than what he tried to convey through this verbose.

On the other hand even from among those who were on the other side of the spectrum, most of them were unfair in their response. It is true that a section of Muslims have suffered more due to some lumpen elements within the Hindu outfits. However, Christians were more vocal in their anti-NaMo and anti-BJP barbs in social media and print media, despite their having suffered no anguish at the hands of these lumpen Hindu elements. That was rather pure and simple hatred of NaMo and BJP. Even media was similarly unfair and divided against NaMo in particular. However, coming back to NaMo, there are enough grey areas that need to be addressed, while there have been many positive developments. On 2^nd Oct 2014, he launched SWATCH BHAARAT ABHIYAN (SBA). While the importance of cleanliness did register in the national consciousness as never before, looking back in June 2019, it has not been a spectacular success due to the kind of mindset our people have. A pathetic bureaucracy coupled with self centered politicians with no commitment, have only made the saga of SBA like all good resolutions, an April of virtue with no September following.

Here it is very pertinent to remember what Bihar Chief Minister Nithish Kumar did. Sometime in Feb 2016, Nithish Kumar announced that ‘persons not having toilets in their home will not be allowed to contest the local body election.’ Since it was a first of a kind initiative and was designed to hit at the core of our commitment, all that PM Modi could have done was to pick-up the phone and congratulate Nithish Kumar (NK) for his path breaking initiative in support of SBA. But never did for whatever reasons.

While Lalu Prasad and his ilk opposed the move by the Bihar Chief Minister, the BJP leadership in Bihar kept quiet. Real politic forced the hand of NK to abandon the idea, and Sushil Kumar Modi of BJP, who is also the Deputy CM of Bihar, went to town to tell the people, “The mandatory clause of the toilet would have stopped many genuine candidates from fighting the election”. This is opportunism BJP style. At one end PM Modi was promoting ‘Pehla toilet temple baadmein’, and his party keeps quiet on NK’s proposal since in Bihar there were BJP leaders who neither had toilet in their homes nor thought much of Swatcha Bharat Abhiyan, but wanted to stand for local body elections.   

Despite stringent penal provisions against manual scavenging, men and women, mostly those from the margins, like Dalit etc, have continued to pay the price with their life in these death-holes called sewer manholes, with no safety gadgets. Hardly anybody was made accountable for these deaths across India. According to Prof. Anand Teltumbde, ‘there are about 800,000 men and women, who are engaged in cleaning dry latrines using the most primitive methods’. But your government in Maharashtra wants to arrest Dr Teltumbde, a grandson of Dr Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar, for asking uncomfortable questions.

Under self employment schemes, Union government led by NaMo could have rehabilitated these scavengers. But the 2017-18 Union Budget of your government reduced the earlier allocation of Rs 448 crores to Rs 5 crores. This amounts to mental poverty of the men who made our national expenditure budget which, prima facie, should be designed to empower the powerless. Such insensitive budget cuts need intervention of the top leadership.

Atrocities on SC/ST and Dalits have been going on without much interruption, despite rhetoric to the contrary. The recent death of Dr Payal Tadvi, an MD student, in a Mumbai Medical College hospital, under questionable circumstances, is a case in point. She would have been the first doctor of her community, if she would have been allowed to live in peace.

In the cacophony surrounding GDP data, the growth of crony capitalism, which is estimated to be about 3.5% of GDP, continued to grow, with rich becoming richer and poor stagnating at best, if not poorer. This is a reflection of all our governments of the past for its unstated economic policy of crying with poor while siding with the rich. No wonder India is hovering around 135 among 188 countries in the Human Development Index (HDI) according to United Nations Development Program (UNDP). And Cuba is in Very High Development group within 50 of UNDP ranking, clearly indicating that it is not the economic resources but the intention and commitment to improve the lot of its peoples by the powers that be, that matters.

Job creation, which truly is the barometer of economic development, has not been very encouraging, despite Skill India, make in India and MUDRA initiatives. Growing population has only added to the growing joblessness, but NDA II appeared clueless to have a national population policy. Sooner the government take the issue of population head on, sooner all socio-economic indices shall show upward trend.

Remember NaMo’s remark at the Red Fort, “By 2022, we will have a Majestic India”. How could it be possible when 1/3 of class 8 students cannot read class 2 level text? And more than 50% in class 9 cannot do simple division; forget about the fact that they can’t read even a simple sentence in English! We are talking about demographic dividend, when we are sitting on an unproductive/unemployable population explosion.

 ‘100 smart cities’, is another move in great hurry that failed miserably to take off. There are many priority areas, which are clearly neglected in favour of grand ideas and schemes like Bullet Train. Here it is pertinent to mention that Maharashtra state information officer was suspended for his response on Bullet Train query. Sarang Kumar Patil was replying an RTI query filed by activist Jeetendra Gadge. He had stated in his reply “A Devendra Fadnavis led committee formed to conduct an in-depth study on the impact of the high speed bullet train corridor had cleared the project without meeting even once”.

There are several issues that the 5 years of NDA II-2014/2019-that made life difficult to different sections of Indians, be it Demonetization, hurriedly implemented GST, reduced spending on education and health etc. Then there are other problem areas like levels of malnutrition among infants and growing children in tribal and rural area, failure to achieve health care targets in respect of – neonatal mortality, mental health, tuberculosis and rheumatic heart disease –, female literacy, extremely unequal distribution of national wealth, etc.

Besides, the new government, to prove it is better than the old one, has to answer many uncomfortable questions.

Q. What about those Members of Parliament elected on BJP ticket with criminal records?

Q. There are many dozens of MPs who are confirmed non-performers. Why was it difficult to replace them with better and more deserving candidates, when India has a pool of exemplary individuals? Bring people like Narayana Murthy, Azeem Premji and other such personalities on a consultation board. That will only enhance the public image of this government for better.

Q. There is this MLA from Ahmadabad Balram Thawani, kicking and thrashing a woman merely for asking about water connection in her area. How can he continue to be in the party? Rahul Gandhi would have suspended such persons without delay. Such people are threats to the internal security of the country. Deal with them sternly and quickly. And Union Minister Sadananda Gowda is publicly making a statement that he became Chief Minister of Karnataka and a Union Minister only because he is a Gowda, and you said ‘caste had no place in the Election 2019’. And Sadananda Gowda is still in your cabinet. There are enough and more, comparatively, people’s representatives in BJP, who are of this kind, who need to be dealt with. They only bring bad name to BJP.

 This talk about $10 trillion economy needs to be rubbished. Talk of better Human Development Index, where having a healthy family, rather than wealthy family, should be the priority.

The present show at the hustings – Election 2019 – should not be taken as a referendum on the 5 years of NDA, that went by. There is a large section of voters who wanted to give NaMo led government another term of 5 more years of governance. So that not only incomplete initiatives of 2014-19 could be completed, but also correction to the wrongs the Modi government has committed during the said period. This should be recognized by NaMo with all humility, not in words but in deed as well.

In Conclusion, it can be stated that, this 5 more year term is an opportunity for NDA III to become a model of governance with performance without corruption with other socio/economic indicators. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is capable of delivering the Acche Din. He has all positive qualities of a leader who can deliver. He has his positive performance picture of 2014-19 which can become lamp posts in his journey to take India to its rightful place in the Comity of Nations. Hope NDA III will not disappoint Indians and will create another benchmark in governance, so that in 2024, it is not difficult to predict who will rule India in the years beyond 2024.